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Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Signs of Life in Iowa? New Poll show Romney back in Lead/"Statistical tie" with Huckabee

Signs of Life in Iowa? I'd like to see more confirmation with a couple more polls before I get too excited.

Insider Advantage Republican Iowa Caucus

  • Romney - 28.0%
  • Huckabee - 25.1%
  • Thompson - 10.8%
  • McCain - 6.9%
  • Paul - 5.5%
  • Giuliani - 5.1%
  • Tancredo - 3.7%
  • Hunter - 0.5%
  • Undecided - 14.4%

Survey of 418 highly likely caucus voters was conducted Dec 16-17, and has an MoE of 5%. Among just “likely voters”, a sample of 835 people, Huckabee is up by just 2.6% (27.7% to 25.1%). The rest of the percentages are virtually the same, including Giuliani in sixth place.

Their last poll was so long ago that it might be unmeaningful for comparison. But their last poll (10/02) in parentheses are here–with the RCP Averages on 10/02 following after the dashes.

* Romney - 28.0% (24-----26)
* Huckabee - 25.1% (13-----8)
* Thompson - 10.8% (13-----15)
* McCain - 6.9% (10-----8)
* Paul - 5.5% (4-----3)
* Giuliani - 5.1% (16-----17)
* Tancredo - 3.7% (not included . . .)
* Hunter - 0.5% (2-----n/a)
* Undecided - 14.4% (13-----n/a)
* Brownback was in that 10/02 poll and got 5%

Observations from this:

1) The last Insider Advantage Iowa poll was very in line with the RCP averages at that time.
2) The only notable exception to this was that the last one OVERESTIMATED Huckabee at 5 points higher than his RCP average.
3) With Brownback dropping out and most of his support going over to Huckabee that 18% combined Huck/Brownback vote then was something I remember taking note of and worrying about if one of them dropped out. If anything last time, this poll over sampled religious conservatives.

Thoughts?

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Now THAT was funny Jeff. Mitt's political life in Iowa is deader than Jimmy Hoffa. Huck has blown Mitt off of the front pages. Huck is now driving the big bus that is headed to D.C. The real question is whether or not Romney will throw his support to Huck after Super Tuesday or will he act as a spoiler. My guess is Mitt will milk this for monetary gain for himself and his sons. Mitt WILL get a payday for spending all of those long hours in Iowa. Mitt made his own bed. I tried to tell him what he had to do to win. My winning strategy fell on deaf ears. Mitt thought his "Kennedy speech" would save him. It didnt. It was too late. People had already typed in the word "Kolob" into Google.

Jeff Fuller said...

Another pro-Huck anti-Mitt AND anti-Mormon comment from an anonymous source.

I think you've lost touch with reality. Romney's now leading or in a close second in every early state and his national polling numbers are rising.

Huck's best days are behind him. People are looking past his "funny factor" and analyzing his record. That's not good for Huck and it's been showing in the polls the last few days. But that's just the start of the Huck-a-bust.

(Notice, no critiques were made of Huck on religious grounds . . . wish I could say the same for your comment)

Anonymous said...

Mitt Romney has played fair from the start. The numbers have bounced a bit but the truth will stand for Mitt. Look at the record, look at the statements, look at the abuse of the religious power. People are smarter than what the media and the spinners think. Actions speak louder than words. Public positions and actions help us understand but the actions at home, off the camera really tell those around us who we are. The example we want in the White House is Mitt Romney he is who he is and he is our best choice. Focus on our future. America has always been the example to the world. Freedom has been defined by those who came from all over the world to build together the place that stands for freedom and liberty. This is a land of winning by helping others to understand and serve. M. Romney relects an understanding of freedom and the direct approach to serve the people, all people while continueing the history of greatness of our founders dreams.

Slick-Willy said...

LOL! I thought Anon #1 was a parody of the nonsense clemency Huck's supporters have been saying. When I realized it was an actual response to the news of Mike being overtaken by Mitt in the polls I literally burst out laughing.

Thanks anon, you made my day brighter.

Anonymous said...

Glad to brighten your day Slick-Willy. When Huck rides out of Iowa on Jan. 3 with his saddlebags full of votes from God-fearing Hawkeyes, I will be there to hand out the Prozac to the few remaining Mittheads as most of them will be over in the Huck camp celebrating. (Dont worry there willl be root beer for the ex-Mittheads to enjoy.) Huck has built a huge tent and we will make room for all who want to back a winner. We all know it's just a matter of time before Huck wraps this up with a pretty red bow on top.

Terry said...

Anon--Rush called it exactly right when he said that with Huck's rising numbers would come scrutiny that would eventuallly drop those numbers down. What happened to Thompson is going to happen to Huckabee. After folks have gotten past the enamored phase, they're going to take a serious look down the road time-wise and realize that Huck doesn't have the the money or support to survive a national campaign. Romney is our best hope. Might I suggest that you dump the anti-Mormon bias and look at the FACTS? Romney's past record (i.e. Bain Capitol, the Olympics, Massachuttes Gov)proves that he's got the knowledge and determination to do some real good as POTUS.