I wish that they said somewhere how many people they polled.
Huckabee’s favorable rating has dropped from 81% to 67% in one week, and his support from evangelicals dropped from 62% to 49%. However, he maintains the highest "certain to vote for him" level:
Among those who have participated in the caucuses before, it’s all even--Huckabee 26% and Romney 26%.Therefore, this reads "Advantage Huckabee" . . . but soon we could be at "Deuce" (sorry for the bad tennis analogy.)
Sixty-two percent (62%) of Likely Caucus participants say they are certain they will not change their mind before January 3. That includes 65% of Huckabee supporters, 58% of those who prefer Romney, and 55% of McCain voters.
McCain in 3rd is obviously an interesting development. He's way up in a clear 3rd place at 14%. I'm not buying that one. I know he got the Des Moines Register endorsement, but I think that the actual number of caucus attendees who would care about who that editorial board recommends has got to be less than 5% (we all know how liberal they are.) McCain just doesn't have the organization (anymore at least . . . he used to have the biggest Iowa staff) to turn in a 3rd place showing . . . I'm expecting Fred to get the third place spot.
Fred needs to start attacking Huck in Iowa frontally. Huck’s fall in Iowa would make Fred viable again in South Carolina and Florida. I think Fred realistically wants a 1) Romney, 2) Huck, 3) Fred fisnish in Iowa to know Huck out of contention and make Fred relevant again. If Huck wins Iowa then he stays relevant through into SC/FL despite expected poor showings in NH and MI.
Hopefully Fred and Steve King will hit Huck on the campaign trail and in ads too. That’s his only way back to southern strength and a shot at SC/FL.