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Wednesday, December 19, 2007

More Confirmation . . . Romney back in "the game" in Iowa.

It's "Game On" again in Iowa folks!

From Rasmussen

Dec 17th Rasmussen Poll IOWA

I wish that they said somewhere how many people they polled.

Huckabee’s favorable rating has dropped from 81% to 67% in one week, and his support from evangelicals dropped from 62% to 49%. However, he maintains the highest "certain to vote for him" level:

Among those who have participated in the caucuses before, it’s all even--Huckabee 26% and Romney 26%.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of Likely Caucus participants say they are certain they will not change their mind before January 3. That includes 65% of Huckabee supporters, 58% of those who prefer Romney, and 55% of McCain voters.
Therefore, this reads "Advantage Huckabee" . . . but soon we could be at "Deuce" (sorry for the bad tennis analogy.)

McCain in 3rd is obviously an interesting development. He's way up in a clear 3rd place at 14%. I'm not buying that one. I know he got the Des Moines Register endorsement, but I think that the actual number of caucus attendees who would care about who that editorial board recommends has got to be less than 5% (we all know how liberal they are.) McCain just doesn't have the organization (anymore at least . . . he used to have the biggest Iowa staff) to turn in a 3rd place showing . . . I'm expecting Fred to get the third place spot.

Fred needs to start attacking Huck in Iowa frontally. Huck’s fall in Iowa would make Fred viable again in South Carolina and Florida. I think Fred realistically wants a 1) Romney, 2) Huck, 3) Fred fisnish in Iowa to know Huck out of contention and make Fred relevant again. If Huck wins Iowa then he stays relevant through into SC/FL despite expected poor showings in NH and MI.

Hopefully Fred and Steve King will hit Huck on the campaign trail and in ads too. That’s his only way back to southern strength and a shot at SC/FL.

4 comments:

Dan DiOrio said...

Pollster.com has this poll listed which says it polled 496, a pretty huge sample :)

Great news Mitt is back baby!!! :)

Anonymous said...

496 people is statistically a non-factor. It means absolutely nothing. Mitt let this one get away a long time ago. Mitt does not even factor in the mix. Iowans are not a bunch of hayseeds that Mitt thought could be bought for $35 and a pork sandwich. They are alot smarter than that. While Mitt was stealing millions of dollars at Bain Capital, Iowans were trying to get ahead raising $2 a bushel corn. Im sure Mitt lined his pockets with plenty of Iowa farm forclosure money. People from Iowa have a long memory.

Anonymous said...

Huckabee is such an awful choice for the GOP nomination for so many reasons, I cannot even believe there are 28% for him. I have to think they haven't heard about Huckabee's pardon/commutation spree, his tax-and-spend record as Arkansas governor (see http://taxhikemike.org), his ethics issues (6 ethics violations citations and the news of taking RJR money). And Romney's doing the right thing to call out Huckabee's egregious statement of calling the Bush administration arrogant. It seems Huck has a Jimmy Carter-style foriegn policy, and is otherwise both uninformed and too liberal to be trusted. Huckabee's soft on immigration, got NEA and IAM union endorsements, and been bashing big business. I could go on ...

Also, it looks like McCain may be picking up the moderate and 'get me an electable RINO' voters that went to Rudy. If McCain beats Rudy in IA and NH, it may make the Rudy train implode.

And I cannot understand why Thompson doesn't get traction. He's a solid candidate.

Anonymous said...

Thompson turned out to be a joke. All Americans wanted him to do well and ol' Fred let it all run down his leg. Thompson has been an embarrasement since day one.