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Monday, October 29, 2007

New University of Iowa Poll--Romney With Strong Lead

New University of Iowa Poll

Romney Nearly Triples closest competitors


  • Mitt Romney 36%
  • Rudy Giuliani 13%
  • Mike Huckabee 13%
  • Fred Thompson 11%
  • John McCain 6%


  • Hillary Rodham Clinton 29%
  • Barack Obama 27%
  • John Edwards 20%
  • Bill Richardson 7%
  • Joe Biden 5%
Detailed crosstabs here (pdf warning)

The race will tighten some, I'm sure . . . but I'd rather be in Romney's position than anyone else at this point! His RCP average for Iowa (average over the last 6 Iowa polls) now has him 14% over his closest competitors.


Saturday, October 27, 2007

Fred Barnes Weekly Standard Article: The Two-Man Race---Only Rudy and Mitt have credible scenarios.

This article by Fred Barnes in the Weekly Standard has boiled things down to Romney vs. Rudy.

After praising the Ron Paul revolution . . . Barnes then bashed that campaign for having no strategy for winning the nomination; i.e. they lacked a credible scenario of success.

Scenarios matter. They offer a way to judge the presidential race. Strong candidates can outline a sequence of likely victories or impressive finishes in the caucuses and primaries that would lead to the nomination. Weak candidates can't. And, to be clear, a strategy and a scenario aren't the same. A scenario is a vision of a candidate's path to victory.

At this point, with the first voting just nine weeks away, only two candidates--Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney--have credible scenarios.
In that sense, the Republican campaign has become a two-man race, Rudy vs. Mitt. John McCain and Fred Thompson may not like this. They have scenarios, too, but theirs aren't terribly credible.

This means just what you think it does. More likely than not, the Republican nominee will be Giuliani or Romney. I remember the old Ken Murray television show in the 1950s that would cut to Hollywood and Vine, where, it was said, "anything can happen and usually does." That's true of politics as well. Still, the best bet is Rudy or Mitt.

Hmmm . . . where have I seen this predicted before? Maybe some smart presidential candidate sees things shaping up this way too. That AP article starts off with . . .

Mitt Romney says the campaign for the Republican presidential nomination will come down to Rudy Giuliani and a more conservative challenger. Like Mitt Romney.

It's no surprise that Giuliani is doing well in national polls of Republicans, Romney said Friday, because candidates with more conservative views on social issues such as abortion and gay rights are splitting the support of like-minded voters.

At some point, the former Massachusetts governor said, the party's conservative base will coalesce around a single candidate, making it tougher for Giuliani

(another spin on Romney's two-man race insinuation can by found here.

Back to Barnes . . .
There are three things to keep in mind when evaluating the presidential race in 2008. First, national polls don't matter at all. Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and John Kerry polled at 13 percent or less nationally before the primaries, then locked up the Democratic nomination a few weeks later [EDITORIAL INSERT by Jeff: All three of those came from SMALL STATES and didn't enjoy widespread national name recognition until some early wins . . . much like the Romney camp forsees things]. State polls provide a better clue of what may happen. Second, the primaries are a dynamic process. Win in the early states and you have a far greater chance of capturing the later primaries--and the nomination. Third, money is more important than ever in 2008. If a long shot like McCain or Thompson or even Mike Huckabee wins in Iowa (January 3) or New Hampshire (January 8) or South Carolina (January 19), there won't be enough time for him to raise the funds needed to compete effectively in Florida on January 29 and the 20-plus primaries on February 5. Television ads are expensive, but necessary.

Romney has an early-primary strategy aimed at Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. He's poured money into those states, broadcast TV spots, and built organizations. Fox News polls show him leading in Iowa and New Hampshire and a close second in South Carolina.

If he wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, he'll have history on his side. No presidential candidate in either party has failed to win the presidential nomination after finishing first in Iowa and New Hampshire--that is, since 1972 when Democrat Edmund Muskie managed the dubious feat of winning both but not the nomination. Romney also has the best shot to win the Michigan primary on January 15. He grew up in Michigan and his father George was governor. The other Republicans have all but ignored Michigan.

So the Romney scenario is obvious. He wins early and takes off like a rocket. His name identification soars. Just as significant, he'll have the money--his own, plus funds he's raised--to compete fully on February 5, Super Tuesday. I think this scenario is believable. Of course it's just a scenario, nothing more.

Then Barnes moves onto Rudy's plan:
Contrary to reports, Giuliani is not ignoring the early states. Well, Iowa maybe. He's campaigning aggressively in New Hampshire and leads in the Fox poll in South Carolina. If he stayed out of every state until the Florida primary, that would be fatal. The early winner would gain all the media attention and swamp him.

But Giuliani's focus is on Florida and then on the big-state primaries on February 5 in California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey. He, too, has the funds to compete. His scenario--breaking out in Florida and blowing away the field on Super Tuesday--is credible in my view [Editorial insert by Jeff: "credible" but never tried/accomplished . . . history is definitely on Mitt's side, not Rudy's].

However, he could do well on Super Tuesday and still not lock up the nomination. The same is true for Romney. Should that happen, the Romney scenario sees conservatives drifting to him as the alternative to the more liberal Giuliani. Former congressman Vin Weber, a Romney adviser, says there's a ceiling on how many Republicans will back Giuliani, one that will keep him from winning the nomination. We'll see.

Barnes then mentions the McCain campaign's strategy of NH and SC wins to get momentum, but reasons:
It's conceivable, but he lacks the money he'd need on February 5.

Of Fred Thompson, Barnes is forced to conclude:
his strategy of running as the only "consistent conservative" hasn't stirred enough support to produce a credible scenario leading to the nomination.

All in all, Barnes gives a pretty fair analysis of the GOP race as it stands right now. I would add that it's becoming more and more clear that if Romney wins 3 or 4 out of the first 5 earliest states (IA, NH, NV, SC, MI--something that's looking more likely than not) that the social conservative votes will stop being split between the many candidates who showed they couldn't put together a victory in ANY early state. Social Conservatives and other "base" voters will coalesce more and more around Romney in order to avoid a pro-choice nominee that will bring out the 3rd party scenario ensuring Hillary will be POTUS . . . YUCK!!

Jeff Fuller

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Gov. Romney's Strategy to Lower Taxes

On October 4th, In New Hampshire, Governor Romney Outlined His Conservative Blueprint To Lower Taxes On The American People. This is real answers, real data, which is more than any other candidate has brought to the table. Others may speak theoretically on how they can improve America, but Mitt Romney has a plan in order to do it!

Lower taxes are the key to ensuring continued economic growth and job creation. Governor Romney believes it is not fair for Americans to pay taxes when they earn their money, when the save their money, and then when they die. On reducing the tax burden which confronts Americans every April 15th, change begins with Governor Romney and Republicans. - Governor Romney Was The First 2008 Presidential Candidate To Sign The "Taxpayer Protection Pledge" Promising To Oppose Any Effort To Increase Taxes. For years, conservative candidates for President have signed their name pledging to oppose tax increases. Governor Romney is the only major candidate for President to sign the Americans for Tax Reform's "Taxpayer Protection Pledge" while others have not. Governor Romney wants everyone to know where he stands and his strong belief that we must lower taxes to grow our economy.

BLUEPRINT #1: Making The Bush Tax Cuts Permanent: Governor Romney Will Make The Bush Tax Cuts Permanent. Governor Romney believes making the Bush Tax Cuts permanent is the first step to ensuring that Americans are able to keep more of their hard-earned money. By Making The Bush Tax Relief Permanent, Governor Romney Will Preserve Tax Relief For Millions Of Americans: - 108,950,000 Total Taxpayers Benefited From The Tax Relief In 2006. - 97,024,000 Americans Benefited From The Rate Reduction In The Lowest Tax Bracket In 2006. - 34,080,000 Couples Saw A Reduction In The Marriage Penalty In 2006. - 27,975,000 Taxpayers Benefited From The Increased Child Credit In 2006.

BLUEPRINT #2: Rolling Back Tax Rates For All Americans: Governor Romney Will Roll Back Tax Rates Across The Board For All Americans. As President, Governor Romney will cut marginal tax rates across the board, allowing all Americans to save more money. This approach is fair, simple and extends the pro-growth benefits of tax rate cuts to all Americans.

BLUEPRINT #3: Eliminating Taxes On Middle Class Savings: Governor Romney Will Make Middle Class Savings Tax Free. Governor Romney's plan will allow middle class Americans to save tax free by changing the tax rate on interest, capital gains and dividends to absolutely 0%. By helping more Americans save and invest, we can meet the challenges of an aging population and ensure the financial security of America. - Governor Romney's Plan Will Allow Over 95% Of American Families To Save And Invest Tax-Free. Any taxpayer with Adjusted Gross Income of under $200,000 would pay a tax rate of absolutely 0% on all of the income they earn from their savings, capital gains and dividends. Governor Romney's Plan Will Help Millions Of Taxpayers Save And Invest Tax-Free. Based on 2005 tax returns: - 56,148,740 Taxpayers Who Earned Interest Could Have Benefited From This Tax Break. - 28,351,341 Taxpayers Who Earned Dividends Could Have Benefited From This Tax Break. - 23,316,273 Taxpayers Who Earned Capital Gains Could Have Benefited From This Tax Break.

BLUEPRINT #4: Eliminating The Death Tax Once And For All: Governor Romney Will Kill The Death Tax. It is unfair to tax the American people three times: once when they earn their money; second when they invest it and receive income from those investments; and third when they die. - Governor Romney Believes The Death Tax Is Fundamentally Unfair. The Death Tax unfairly impacts families, farmers, ranchers and small businesses. These are the engines of America's economic growth and they should not be burdened by unfair taxes. By eliminating the Death Tax, we will help thousands of Americans take money that would be used to pay an unfair tax and instead use it fuel economic growth.

BLUEPRINT #5: Cutting The Corporate Tax Rate: Governor Romney Believes Our Corporate Tax Rate Must Be Competitive With The Rest Of The World. The United States has the second highest corporate tax rate in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. We simply cannot afford for future economic growth to have a tax rate that is out of alignment with the other major economies of the world.

BLUEPRINT #6: Opposing Social Security Tax Increases: Governor Romney Opposes Any Increase In Social Security Taxes. We can strengthen Social Security without resorting to higher Social Security taxes that will impact all Americans. Governor Romney will oppose any proposed increase in Social Security taxes.

BLUEPRINT #7: Making Medical Expenses Tax Deductible: Governor Romney Will Make Qualified Medical Expenses Tax Deductible. Governor Romney supports the full deductibility of qualified medical expenses, which will allow Americans to deduct the cost of their health insurance and out-of-pocket medical expenses, where accompanied by at least catastrophic insurance.

Read Governor Romney's Full Strategy For A Stronger America:
To read more about Governor Romney's agenda to change Washington, please click on the Strategy for a Stronger America , a compilation of his policy proposals for conservative change and to meet the new generation of challenges confronting our nation. Since January 2007, Governor Romney has outlined more than 50 different policy proposals. From defeating violent Jihadists to protecting traditional values, Governor Romney believes we can build a stronger America by taking Washington apart and putting it back together based on conservative principles that strengthen our national defense, our economy and our families.

Saturday, October 20, 2007

Sunday, October 14, 2007

Debates are like Law and Order

Here is my favorite quote from last weeks debate! Spread the news, Romney is sharp, intelligent, and has a sense of humor!!!

Saturday, October 13, 2007

More info from the CNBC debate

The Mitt Romney web site has put together an amazing compilation of info from the debate last week. Stop over to check it out : :

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Best and Worst : Part TWO

Part two of the BEST and WORST is a poll for anyone to vote in. Who do you think did the BEST in the debate, and who do you think did the WORST? Let's hear it........

Who did the BEST in the CNBC Republican Debate?
Sam Brownback
Duncan Hunter
Mike Huckabee
Rudy Giuliani
John McCain
Ron Paul
Mitt Romney
Tom Tancredo
Fred Thompson free polls

Who did the WORST in the CNBC Republican Debate?
Sam Brownback
Duncan Hunter
Mike Huckabee
Rudy Giuliani
John McCain
Ron Paul
Mitt Romney
Tom Tancredo
Fred Thompson free polls

Best and Worst : Part ONE

For those IOWANS who watched the debates on CNBC, this is your chance to speak out. I am interested to know what you think was the BEST quote, and the WORST quote. Leave a comment to tell us your response. Please limit comments to those who watched the debate, thanks.

I will start things off:

Best Quote:
Mitt Romney made a case for his experience, and in doing so, compared his economic and political experience to Hillary Clinton. In doing so, he said "I can't wait to debate with Hillary Clinton, because I have done it, and she's only talked about it. " I couldn't agree with him more. I look forward to their debates.

Worst Quote:
John McCain made a ridiculous comment about oil companies: When asked if he would require oil companies to spend a percentage of their profits on new energy technology, he ultimately said "NO", but first he said "I would hope that these companies would reinvest in new technologies like nuclear power." Has he forgotten what that industry has done for the past 20 years? In my opinion, the oil industry HAS NO INTEREST IN NEW ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES. They are interested in selling oil for a profit. Period. Why would they ever choose to give away money to actually decrease their profits? The oil industry is squashing potential for nuclear. The oil industry is lobbying Washington to keep fuel efficiency requirements for cars and trucks as low as possible. The oil industry is buying up patents on high efficiency / high output batteries in order to prevent them from being used in automobiles! It is obvious who McCain has in his back pocket...............THE OIL INDUSTRY.

I should also add that I got a good chuckle out of Mitt Romney's quote about the series of republican debates : "These debates are like Law and Order : There's a huge cast, it seems to go on and on, and Fred Thompson shows up at the end".

Monday, October 08, 2007

Romney Responds to Newsweek regarding article

Mitt Romney responded to the Newsweek Article with the following letter. Way to go Mitt. Don't let them get away with that type of reporting! I am glad to see Mitt's resolve to focus on important things for his campaign instead of entertaining the bible-bashing reporters who just want to mock his religion. See his letter below or directly at Newsweek:

The Making of a Candidate
I am an American running for president, not a Mormon running for president, but I am also very proud of my faith. And I am not a cafeteria Mormon, choosing some parts to accept and reject—I am "true blue, through and through." My family and I are better people and far happier than we would have been without our faith. It is puzzling that when NEWSWEEK looks at me ("A Mormon's Journey: The Making of Mitt Romney," Oct. 8) what you mostly see is a Mormon. I would have thought that more important to my potential presidency would be my record as a governor, 25-year business leader, Olympic CEO, father, husband—and American.

Mitt Romney
Belmont, Mass.

Debate on CNBC 10-09-07

CNBC/MSNBC/The Wall Street Journal are jointly sponsoring the first Republican Presidential debate of the 2008 campaign focusing on economic issues. The two-hour debate is scheduled to be held on October 9 in Dearborn, Mich. and will be broadcast live on CNBC, First in Business Worldwide, at 3 PM Central and re-broadcast on MSNBC at 8 PM Central that evening. This will be the first face-off with new-comer Fred Thompson in the campaign.
As a side note : Fred Thompson stopped in Iowa City last tuesday. A few items of interest:
1. It was held at the Marriott in Coralville the same day as the Obama visit was at the Marriott. Strange timing. Staffers are supposed to ask questions like : "Are there any other candidates hosting receptions at your facility that day?". Nice one.
2. I wasn't able to attend, but I heard reports that the turnout was representative of his ground strength in Johnson County : marginal. I realize he is a newcomer to Iowa, but waiting so long to enter the race gave up precious time to spend campaigning in Iowa. A visit to the state fair waring his Gucci shoes and italian suit wasn't enough to win over Iowans.
We'll see how the debate goes. I predict that Giuliani and Romney will be teaming up againt Freddie right out of the gates. Enjoy, and look for the post debate poll here in the blog!

Sunday, October 07, 2007

Neighbor Midwestern State Blogger: Romney was "freaking phenomenal"

Fred at "Real Debate Wisconsin" had the following to say about Mitt's Performance at the Defending the American Dream Summit (and his comments came AFTER Fred the Blogger said of Fred Thompson's entry to speak: "Dude is a rock star. The place went nuts." . . . looks like, once again, Mitt outshines everyone)

Mitt spoke to gathered masses.

I have to tell you, he was freaking phenomenal. He was channeling Reagan.

He was witty, charming and looking VERY Presidential.

I've been leaning Fred Thompson, I'm conflicted.

He's also posted video of Romney's Summit speech here and here

Jeff Fuller

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Ann Romney website is official!

Ann Romney has launched her website to track her day-to-day on the campaign trail. This is a great opportunity to get to know the next First Lady of the United States!

Visit the website here:

Newsweek stoops to a new low...

Newsweek ran an cover article on Mitt Romney for the October 8 issue. Don't let the title fool you. It doesn't have anything to do with Mitt's missionary service in the LDS church. However, the article effectively becomes a collection of "shock topic" words written into a poli-religious mash-up, all in an effort to tear down Mitt Romney's credibility as a presidential candidate. From the beginning of the article, the authors attack Mitt simply because he did not immediately express a perfect love and a perfect memory of a church building where he attended as a young child. He has probably attended scores of church buildings for religious services in his life, and yet he is expected to have a perfect memory of the one in Pontiac, MI.

Elise Soukup and Daniel McGinn combined forces to write some of the most biased opinion piece on Romney that I have seen in a long time. I have been waiting for an article like this to come out. Basically, they throw a bunch of random info about Mitt Romney, as well as interview tid bits, and bind it together with a lot of "data" that can't be verified in any way to end up with this article.

As for the random info about Mitt, they forgot to mention how he does in states where people DO get to know him, AND his history. Let's take IOWA for example. See chart here of Romney's polling in Iowa: Look at the graph that shows Romney's polling in Iowa.
Romney's lead in Iowa has steadily risen since he started spending a lot of time in the state hosting luncheons, "Ask Mitt Anything" evens, etc. It is this simple: the more people see and hear Mitt, the more they want to vote for him. That's what the media DOES NOT WANT AMERICA TO KNOW. So Newsweek, which could also be renamed "Opinion Week", takes one for the liberal left media team and runs a story like this. And why not?? No one will get too upset. No one will get fired over it. It is a typical "Trash and Run" tactic of the media where they make biased or false claims against someone, and then by the time the story is determined to be biased or false, the magazine has moved on to bigger and better dirt, and has conveniently run out of time to write a correction piece. My big complaint: IS there anything sacred anymore? The author basically brags about how they asked Mitt "uncomfortable" questions, and then watched him "squirm". Let me translate that into English rather than the author's own angle on it: " They asked Mitt inappropriate questions about specific, sacred parts of his religion, and then watched as he made an effort to keep the interview on track, and not allow the interviewer to make the interview into a Mormon Bashing Party." Does that sound better? Or rather more realistic? Even the caption under the first photo is over the line. They love to take mis-understood aspects of the LDS faith, and throw them into the wind to see where they will fall. No explanation, no background, no attempt at all to maintain any level of sacredness for the LDS religion. All in the name of shock values. "Trash and Run" folks. Need I say more?

As for the interview tidbits, we only get to see the interviewers selected parts of the interviews. That's why print media is becoming a thing of the past, because we can see entire interviews, body language, and FULL CONTEXT by watching interviews on YouTube. A picture is worth 1000 words, but a video on YouTube is worth a novel!

As for the data, the authors tried to make some major "generalizations" about the LDS church while trying to re-educate us on Mitt and his religion. My favorite line is "Mindful of the sway of evangelical Christians over the GOP base, he has positioned himself as the candidate with conservative principles and strong faith, even adopting evangelical language in calling Jesus Christ his "personal savior" (vernacular not generally used by members of the Mormon Church) ". Um, where did they get their info on this one? I know plenty of LDS believers who openly say that Jesus is their personal savior. After all, it's what they believe as a religion. Who did they ask to determine what "general vernacular" is for members of the "Mormon" church? Maybe Elise Soukup and Daniel McGinn need to take 10 minutes to talk to actual LDS leaders to find out that the church is found all over the world, and to say that the church has "general vernacular" is almost impossible due to the size and multi-cultural nature of the church.

Overall this article was a disappointment to Romney supporters, as well as LDS believers. Both are attacked in this article. I am a little surprised that Newsweek would run this considering who owns Newsweek. They spent a lot of money to maintain republican interests over the years, so why the slander against the one man who can actually beat Hillary in an election?