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Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Two New Iowa Polls: Romney Leads Solidly, but Huckabee is new FOTM (Flavor of the Month)

Two new Iowa Polls out today:

CBS/NYT GOP Iowa Caucus Poll, conducted Nov. 2nd-12th, 2007 (no previous polling from this firm to compare to)
  • Mitt Romney 27%
  • Mike Huckabee 21%
  • Rudy Giuliani 15%
  • Fred Thompson 9%
  • John McCain 4%
  • Ron Paul 4%
  • Tom Tancredo 3%
Huckabee's supporters are airing this one far and wide (can you blame them?) . . . however, this is the highest Huckabee has ever polled in Iowa. He is to Iowa social conservatives what Fred Thompson was to national social conservatives a few months back . . . i.e. "The Flavor of the Month." Huckabee's record is far worse than Fred Thompson's. He's a much better speaker/campaigner than Fred, but his open-borders immigration history and his fiscal liberalism will be thoroughly exposed. It's pretty obvious that he's not quite what his current supporters think he is (sounds like Fred, eh?). Fred had a good line by calling Huckabee a "Pro-life liberal." . . . now for the next poll.
Strategic Vision GOP Iowa Caucus
(Poll from 4 weeks ago in parenthesis for comparison)
  • Mitt Romney 30% (27%)
  • Mike Huckabee 19% (12%)
  • Rudy Giuliani 12% (13%)
  • Fred Thompson 11% (10%)
  • John McCain 7% (5%)
  • Ron Paul 5% (4%)
  • Tom Tancredo 2% (2%)
  • Duncan Hunter 1% (1%)
  • Undecided 13% (22%)
Brownback had 4% in last month's poll and was excluded here because he dropped out. Maybe Huck and McCain got little slices of that small piece of the pie. Also, the undecideds are way down. (Huck and Romney must have picked up some of these).

All told and even including these polls, the Real Clear Politics Iowa Average has Mitt with a 13% lead. This will likely shrink . . . but the sky is not falling.

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