NH polls Update

"Where they know Romney, they love Romney." Opponents get sick of this mantra of ours, but the data continue to confirm it.

Details from the most recent CNN/WMUR New Hampshire poll mimic a lot of what we are seeing in Iowa.

Who would you vote for (6 week old poll by same firm in parentheses):

• Mitt Romney 32% (25%)
• Rudy Giuliani 20% (24%)
• John McCain 17% (18%)
• Ron Paul 7% (4%)
• Other 6%
• Mike Huckabee 5% (3%)
• Undecided 13% (9%)

Yes, Fred Thompson, plus Duncan Hunter, plus Tom Tancredo are the "other" which totaled 6% (even though their names were offered as an option. I remember when this same polling firm did their last NH poll and all the buzz was that Rudy had caught Romney in NH (25% VS 24%). It was major fodder for the political pundits. Romney has gone from a 1% lead to a 12% lead in just 6 weeks. However, as the one with the highest numbers (and as the one running the most TV ads) he doesn't have the most solid support among those polled . . . that would got to Ron Paul.

Strongest Leader

• Rudy Giuliani 34%
• Mitt Romney 26%
• John McCain 18%

At least the two guys with executive experience are leading here. Voters want executive experience in their Cheif Executive, eh?

Most Experience

• Mitt Romney 26% (25%)
• John McCain 25% (32%)
• Rudy Giuliani 23% (17%)

Wow, that's tight . . . but Romney has closed the gap on McCain while Rudy has made strides on both of them.

Best Chance of Beating Democratic Candidate in 2008

• Rudy Giuliani 34% (32%)
• Mitt Romney 30% (21%)
• John McCain 8% (13%)

Wait . . . isn't this the whole argument behind Rudy's candidacy (at least according to Pat Robertson) that he gives the best chance of beating Hillary? Well, NH voters, who have seen a lot of both of them seem to think Mitt's up to the task every bit as much as Rudy.

GOP Candidate Least Likely to Vote For

• Fred Thompson 43%
  
• John McCain 21%
• Rudy Giuliani 14%
• Mitt Romney 13%

Finally a category where Fred wasn't lumped in with "other" . . . though hardly the one he wishes. This is what Fred gets for choosing Leno over the NH debate. This puts Fred in the position of having to make a solid top three showing in Iowa to try to hang in there through his sure-to-be huge losses in NH and MI and make it to SC/FL. Personally, I'd love Fred to come in 2nd or 3rd in Iowa . . . it would cut into Huckabee's showing and would assure Rudy/McCain as 4th and 5th place . . . not the kind of showing they would be hoping for.

Candidate Best Able to Deal with Terrorism

• John McCain 31%
• Rudy Giuliani 29%
• Mitt Romney 12%

It's unrealistic to expect Romney to match up with these two on this issue . . . I mean this issue is the sine qua non of their candidacies in the first place!

Most Trustworthy:

• Romney 28%
• McCain 19%
• Rudy 13%
• Paul 8%
• Huckabee 8%

Even among people choosing Rudy as the one they’d vote for in this poll . . . only 48% of THEM thought he was the “most trustworthy” candidate. But aren’t all the RudyBots, the McCainiacs, the FredHeads, and the Huckabites always telling us what a phony and a “used car salesman” Romney is? Looks like Rudy’s got bigger “trust” issues than anyone else.

Some interesting crosstabs:

Extremely interested in Primary:

• Romney 32%
• Rudy 18%
• McCain 16%
• Paul 13% (its all or nothing for the Ronlulans . . . see below)

Very interested in Primary:

• Romney 33%
• Rudy 22%
• McCain 16%
• Paul 2%

Somewhat/not very interested:

• Romney 30%
• Rudy 22%
• McCain 19%
• Paul 8%

Romney's lead shrinks slightly among those not paying attention (a glimpse into what national poll figures currently represent). That's a GOOD sign.

Definitely vote in Primary:

• Romney 33%
• Rudy 21%
• McCain 16%
• Paul 7%

Vote unless emergency:

• Romney 32%
• Rudy 18%
• McCain 20%
• Paul 3%

May vote:

• Romney 11%
• Rudy 26%
• McCain 25%
• Paul 23%

Romney's lead is also strongest among those likely to vote. I don’t think Romney’s camp is too worried that they’re running 4th among those that “may vote” . . . because that means that these “unlikely likely voters” are propping up the other candidates’ poll numbers.

Survey of 404 likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted November 2-7. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 17-24 are in parentheses.

And then there's the other NH poll from yesterday (Marist):

• Mitt Romney 33% (26%)
• Rudy Giuliani 22% (20%)
• John McCain 13% (17%)
• Mike Huckabee 7% (7%)
• Ron Paul 7% (2%)
• Fred Thompson 5% (10%)

Regardless of whom you are planning to vote for, which Republican candidate do you think has the best chance of beating the Democrat next November?

• Rudy Giuliani 40%
• Mitt Romney 37%
• John McCain 9%
• Fred Thompson 3%

Survey of 372 likely Republican primary voters was conducted November 2-6. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 4-9 are in parentheses.

There are lots of other interesting crosstabs on that poll too, showing that Romney has a huge advantage among immigration-minded voters, that he's shored up his "strongly support" figures, and that he wins out as the "values" candidate.

There's quite a bit of time to go, and the attack ads against Romney should start coming out in the next few weeks. Voting is less than 7 weeks away!