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Sunday, November 11, 2007

NH polls Update

"Where they know Romney, they love Romney." Opponents get sick of this mantra of ours, but the data continue to confirm it.

Details from the most recent CNN/WMUR New Hampshire poll mimic a lot of what we are seeing in Iowa.

Who would you vote for (6 week old poll by same firm in parentheses):
  • Mitt Romney 32% (25%)
  • Rudy Giuliani 20% (24%)
  • John McCain 17% (18%)
  • Ron Paul 7% (4%)
  • Other 6%
  • Mike Huckabee 5% (3%)
  • Undecided 13% (9%)
Yes, Fred Thompson, plus Duncan Hunter, plus Tom Tancredo are the "other" which totaled 6% (even though their names were offered as an option. I remember when this same polling firm did their last NH poll and all the buzz was that Rudy had caught Romney in NH (25% VS 24%). It was major fodder for the political pundits. Romney has gone from a 1% lead to a 12% lead in just 6 weeks. However, as the one with the highest numbers (and as the one running the most TV ads) he doesn't have the most solid support among those polled . . . that would got to Ron Paul.

Strongest Leader

  • Rudy Giuliani 34%
  • Mitt Romney 26%
  • John McCain 18%
At least the two guys with executive experience are leading here. Voters want executive experience in their Cheif Executive, eh?

Most Experience
  • Mitt Romney 26% (25%)
  • John McCain 25% (32%)
  • Rudy Giuliani 23% (17%)
Wow, that's tight . . . but Romney has closed the gap on McCain while Rudy has made strides on both of them.

Best Chance of Beating Democratic Candidate in 2008
  • Rudy Giuliani 34% (32%)
  • Mitt Romney 30% (21%)
  • John McCain 8% (13%)
Wait . . . isn't this the whole argument behind Rudy's candidacy (at least according to Pat Robertson) that he gives the best chance of beating Hillary? Well, NH voters, who have seen a lot of both of them seem to think Mitt's up to the task every bit as much as Rudy.

GOP Candidate Least Likely to Vote For
  • Fred Thompson 43%
  • John McCain 21%
  • Rudy Giuliani 14%
  • Mitt Romney 13%
Finally a category where Fred wasn't lumped in with "other" . . . though hardly the one he wishes. This is what Fred gets for choosing Leno over the NH debate. This puts Fred in the position of having to make a solid top three showing in Iowa to try to hang in there through his sure-to-be huge losses in NH and MI and make it to SC/FL. Personally, I'd love Fred to come in 2nd or 3rd in Iowa . . . it would cut into Huckabee's showing and would assure Rudy/McCain as 4th and 5th place . . . not the kind of showing they would be hoping for.

Candidate Best Able to Deal with Terrorism
  • John McCain 31%
  • Rudy Giuliani 29%
  • Mitt Romney 12%
It's unrealistic to expect Romney to match up with these two on this issue . . . I mean this issue is the sine qua non of their candidacies in the first place!

Most Trustworthy:

  • Romney 28%
  • McCain 19%
  • Rudy 13%
  • Paul 8%
  • Huckabee 8%

Even among people choosing Rudy as the one they’d vote for in this poll . . . only 48% of THEM thought he was the “most trustworthy” candidate. But aren’t all the RudyBots, the McCainiacs, the FredHeads, and the Huckabites always telling us what a phony and a “used car salesman” Romney is? Looks like Rudy’s got bigger “trust” issues than anyone else.

Some interesting crosstabs:

Extremely interested in Primary:

  • Romney 32%
  • Rudy 18%
  • McCain 16%
  • Paul 13% (its all or nothing for the Ronlulans . . . see below)

Very interested in Primary:

  • Romney 33%
  • Rudy 22%
  • McCain 16%
  • Paul 2%

Somewhat/not very interested:

  • Romney 30%
  • Rudy 22%
  • McCain 19%
  • Paul 8%
Romney's lead shrinks slightly among those not paying attention (a glimpse into what national poll figures currently represent). That's a GOOD sign.

Definitely vote in Primary:

  • Romney 33%
  • Rudy 21%
  • McCain 16%
  • Paul 7%

Vote unless emergency:

  • Romney 32%
  • Rudy 18%
  • McCain 20%
  • Paul 3%

May vote:

  • Romney 11%
  • Rudy 26%
  • McCain 25%
  • Paul 23%
Romney's lead is also strongest among those likely to vote. I don’t think Romney’s camp is too worried that they’re running 4th among those that “may vote” . . . because that means that these “unlikely likely voters” are propping up the other candidates’ poll numbers.

Survey of 404 likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted November 2-7. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 17-24 are in parentheses.


And then there's the other NH poll from yesterday (Marist):
  • Mitt Romney 33% (26%)
  • Rudy Giuliani 22% (20%)
  • John McCain 13% (17%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7% (7%)
  • Ron Paul 7% (2%)
  • Fred Thompson 5% (10%)
Regardless of whom you are planning to vote for, which Republican candidate do you think has the best chance of beating the Democrat next November?
  • Rudy Giuliani 40%
  • Mitt Romney 37%
  • John McCain 9%
  • Fred Thompson 3%

Survey of 372 likely Republican primary voters was conducted November 2-6. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 4-9 are in parentheses.

There are lots of other interesting crosstabs on that poll too, showing that Romney has a huge advantage among immigration-minded voters, that he's shored up his "strongly support" figures, and that he wins out as the "values" candidate.

There's quite a bit of time to go, and the attack ads against Romney should start coming out in the next few weeks. Voting is less than 7 weeks away!

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