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Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Romney's Poll Numbers Unphased by Huckabee's surge in Iowa.

New Iowa poll from ABC/WaPo:

Numbers in parentheses are from the same firms' last Iowa poll from nearly 4 months ago

* Mitt Romney 28% (26%) +2
* Mike Huckabee 24% (8%) +16
* Fred Thompson 15% (13%) +2
* Rudy Giuliani 13% (14%) -1
* John McCain 6% (8%) -2
* Ron Paul 6% (2%) +4

Big move up for Huckabee, small move up for Paul. Everyone else fairly flat since 4 months ago.

Huckabee must be picking up many of the undecideds and Brownbackers (who had 5% last time).

There is no denying Huckabee’s surge . . . but until someone shows me that Romney's numbers are falling due to Huckabee’s rise then I’m not going to be too concerned.
Poll after poll that shows Huckabee "gaining" also shows that Mitt hasn't lost any support or that he's GAINED support over previous polls.

Actually, 30% may just be enough to win Iowa for Romney.

Some other tidbits from the write-up at WaPo:

Still, there are other signs in the poll suggesting that Romney remains the candidate to beat in the state and that gains for Huckabee may be harder to achieve in the next 43 days than they were over the past four months.

Romney outperforms Huckabee and other Republicans on key attributes, with two notable exceptions — perceptions of which candidate best understands people’s problems and which candidate is the most honest and trustworthy. On both, Romney and Huckabee are tied. At the same time, Iowa Republicans see the former Arkansas governor as less credible than Romney, Giuliani or McCain on some top issues.

That's just more evidence that Huckabee is “the new girlfriend” . . . but not the “marrying type” for the Iowa GOP. He truly is the Flavor of the Month (though a popular one)

The enthusiasm among Huckabee supporters was striking, particularly in a year in which Republicans have been considerably dissatisfied with the field of candidates. Half of those who now back the former Arkansas governor said they are very enthusiastic about him, compared with 28 percent of Romney’s backers.

Remember how “enthusiastic” all those Fred supporters were too? Expect this bounce to fade as records are exposed and he shows his thin skin.

A quarter of those surveyed said immigration is their biggest or second-biggest concern when considering whom to back on Jan. 3. The same percentage, 24 percent, highlighted the war in Iraq, and nearly as many, 21 percent, singled out terrorism and national security

On immigration, Romney has an edge: 27 percent said the former Massachusetts governor is best on the issue, while Huckabee and Rep. Tom Tancredo (Colo.) each received 13 percent.

Funny how they never state how many total percentage points Tancredo got in the poll . . . but if he’s getting 13% of people saying that immigration is issue #1 or #2 for a large segment (25% per the article) then he must be getting 3%.

We’ll see if Tancredo runs on through to the end here in Iowa . . . I’d like him to drop out because people that educated on immigration won’t be voting for Huckabee or Giuliani. Thompson and Romney will split that small slice of the pie IMO.

Still, it’s shocking that Huckabee is in 2nd place among voters keyed in on immigration . . . sounds like Iowa voters need to get educated on that one, eh?

I invite you to look at the RCP Iowa Polling Averages to help you see the numbers that 1) confirm Huckabee's rise and 2) also confirm that Romney hasn't lost any support over Huck (Mitt's actually been trending back up in Iowa over the past 6 weeks as Huck has made his surge).

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey all you Iowans for Romney that are reading this blog--

The caucus is coming right up and I am issuing you a challenge to do what you can to help Mitt come out on top. Donate money, put up a yard sign or bumper sticker on your car, invite your friends and neighbors to caucus for Mitt, call the headquarters and volunteer if you live nearby ( Urbandale office#: 515-309-1990) I just made some calls at the headquarters on Saturday and it was lots of fun!

Signed,
A Mom for Mitt in Urbandale

Jeff Fuller said...

Great advice Mom for Mitt in Urbandale!!

It could be a fight . . . and we need to get serious about helping make Mitt the winner of Iowa!!

Anonymous said...

Yeah, I would say Iowans need a real education on the candidate with the most backbone concerning illegal immigration, and that is Tom Tancredo. Huckabee is an illegal immigration apologist, and garnered money for the Mexican Consulate in Arkansas and paved the way for illegals to be hired and used at Tyson Chicken plants in Iowa. Romney will flip flop 'til the day is long. He has no immigration policy, other than allowing for more HB-1 visas.

Better research these guys before you give them all your votes. I would think you would want someone honest and forthright like Tom Tancredo. This guy is bending over backwards to try to get the message out that illegal immigration and political correctness are going to doom us as a sovereign nation. If you want open borders, the NAU, and a NAFTA Superhighway running through the middle of the country, go for it.

Don't whine and cry when you don't like what you get. The only reason Romney is running has got to be because he is power hungry. He has got so much money, he doesn't know what else to do, and Huckabee is going to save the third world, with your money. He doesn't care about American citizens.

Research--research.

Nealie Ride said...

Tancredo fan,

You may have done much research. However, you forgot to research who has an actual chance to win the primary and general election.

Will your vote "count" or will you cast it for Tancredo? You can use your vote to protest. Fine. Go ahead and vote for Tancredo.

Yet, Mitt is undeniably the only one who can compete with Rudy nationally, and then tangle with and ultimately defeat Hillary/Bill.

As time goes on, you'll realize (I hope) that Mitt has a sensible immigration policy worthy of your support.

Tancredo4prez said...

I don't know why anyone who is fed up with illegal immigration and border security would support Mitt Romney! I challenge Romney supporters to present information and facts that prove Gov. Romney has in the past been tough on illegal immigration! Illegal immigration is an issue that affects this nation's education, healthcare, jobs, economy, crime AND future of our great nation!

This family of five voters supports TOM TANCREDO who has fought against illegal immigration for NINE years, with very little support from colleagues on Capitol Hill.

Iowans - if you're really paying attention to what's happening in your neighborhoods, cities and state, you've seen the effects of illegal immigration! Greedy and powerful corporations do not want our borders shut down and they certainly don't want to stop the flow of cheap labor from the south.

Here in Arizona, taxpayers are paying millions of dollars to educate children of illegal immigrants. Currently, there are a quarter of a MILLION non-English speakers in our schools - siphoning money from our schools that should be spent on legal students! I'm sure the number of non-English speakers in Iowa's schools is rising rapidly too.

Why is it that illegal immigrants can enter our emergency rooms and receive medical treatment for FREE, when not one member of my family receives free medical treatment? My insurance premiums continue to rise dramatically on a yearly basis, yet my healthcare coverage shrinks year after year. Those of us who HAVE health coverage pay for the illegal immigrants who get it for free!

I don't know about Iowa's Home Depots, Lowes, and WalMarts - but here in Arizona, the store signs and labels are in two languages - large and bold! Since when did the U.S.A. become a bilingual nation? English is our official language. If a business wants to cater to other languages, it should cater to ALL languages spoken by citizens of this country - NOT just Spanish!

I'd vote for Mitt Romney if this were a beauty contest, but it's not.

I want our next president to put the United States and it's citizens FIRST! I want a president who will stand up for our rights and freedoms! I want a president who will tell Mexican President Calderon to take care of his own country's problems and fight his own drug wars! I want a president who will tell China that our children and pets will no longer be poisoned by their products! I want a president who will help keep America safe by making sure a three-tier fence is built across the entire border - to keep out terrorists, drugs, illegal immigrants, gang members and Mexico's drug cartel!

Tom Tancredo is the only candidate who has proven he is ready and willing to do all those things for the America people and for the future of our country!

Anonymous said...

I am a Tom Tancredo supporter because I believe he is best for America. He entered this campaign April 2, 2007 because none of the other candidates were talking about border security and illegal immigration. He came to Washington in January 1999 because Washington was not doing enough about the issues. He has been focused and unwavering while all of the other candidates have been flip flopping all over the place.

Tom Tancredo's message is not border security and illegal immigration, it is preserving American culture and sovereignty.

All of the Democrat candidates except Dennis Kucinich are connected to the Council on Foreign Relations. Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Fred Thompson and MITT ROMNEY are connected to the CFR. The CFR has an admitted goal of forming a North American Union by the year 2010. Anyone who votes for any of these candidates will be voting to shred our Constitution and Bill of Rights and throw Old Glory in the trash. You do not have to believe me, look it up. There is plenty of informatioin available but you won't hear it admitted on the LATE SHOW.

Start here:

http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=58778

Vic Lundquist said...

Anonymous & Tancredo4Prez:

If you have not noticed, your man is dead last; does that have any meaning? Value? Single issue candidates have never been President -- ever.

Tancredo cannot even look at the camera in the debates; half the time he is looking at his feet. You think he could stare down the Mexican President? Tancredo seems like a nice man - he really does and I think he probably is a nice man.

You ask about Romney. Gov. Romney's reputation in every endeavor he has pursued in business, volunteer work (Olympics), or government leadership, he has delivered what he promised. That is a fact on top of the fact that he has not failed at any significant venture. So what has he promised on immigration?

1. Tamper-proof ID cards.
2. Any business that employs an illegal alien will receive the same penalty as the business who does not pay its taxes.
3. He will finish building the border wall.
4. He will build up border enforcement big time.

I have to run to take my daughter. I may be missing something. Just remember this: Romney ALWAYS executes against his plans and promises. ALWAYS.

Anonymous said...

I believe illegal immigration is the most serious issue that we face. It is obvious that Rudy, Mitt , Fred, and John have not displayed a committment to address the illegal immigration problem. All four of them have been caught vascillating on their views on this issue.
The other major problem that our country faces is that we are on the pathway towards global governance. It appears we are well on the road with the emergence of the SPP, NAU, NAFTA, and the NAFTA superhighway (which will be built very close to Des Moines). As members of the CFR promote these issues, we need a candidate who has not been bought and paid for by big business and special interestgroups. That candidate is TOM TANCREDO. He stands for Americans and America. He has never changed his stance of illegal immigration or the unpopular things that must be done to contol it--build the fence, secure the borders, eliminate benefits to illegals, grant 'no amnesty' and prosecute employers who hire illegals. In other words, he would enforce our laws!!! Tom is the only candidate that my conscience will allow me to vote for. We are talking about the very survival of America!!

Vic Lundquist said...

Anonymous:

You did not answer any points made before your last post. Again:

1) Tancredo is dead last. He cannot win the nomination, let alone the presidency. No single-issue candidate has ever been President. When will Tancredo begin to compete against the other candidates in real terms (polls, money, endorsements.....)?

2) Romney has not vacillated one bit on immigration. What you listed just above for Tancredo is precisely what Romney has proposed IN ADDITION to 50 other major, detailed domestic and foreign policies compared to Tancredo's what?

3) I read everything on the URL you left. There is nothing new there outside of all the conspiracy theories floating around that surface now and again on talk shows. On world government and super-highways: Just think about it for a second. This will never happen unless Americans allow it. Two examples: There is all kinds of evidence that it is in our best interest to drill for oil in Alaska in a major/huge way. Not going to happen; the people and environmentalists are against it. Second, it is in our best interest to build nuclear plants all across America and today, nobody wants that. Oil prices will have to go to $15 a barrel before we will have the collective will to build nuclear. So, there is no way Americans are going to want a super-highway for the purposes you think and it will never happen unless they do want it. Period. It is all tin-foil head conspiracy stuff.

Of all the candidates that have a chance to actually be nominated on the GOP ticket, Romney is by far the strongest on immigration. All the wrangling about Tancredo or any other candidate is just a waste of time.

Last, which of the primary states is Tancredo planning to win? Which of the primary states is Tancredo likely to win? How many of the primary states is Tancredo expected to win? Let's say I concede everything you have stated about Tancredo --- in what way does any of what you state matter if you cannot answer these three simple questions (let alone all the others above)?

Romney is dead-set on running as a hawk on immigration. He just is not a single-issue candidate. And remember this: WHATEVER ROMNEY PLANS AND PROMISES, he executes accordingly. Always. That is precisely his reputation. Romney always delivers to his promises. No other candidate can say that.

Anonymous said...

Mitt Romney is super rich and is a globalist free trade supporter. He wants the free trade agreements that are hurting Iowan's standard of living expanded. If you want to know the agenda of the elite including Romney and the other first tier candidates of both parties, google and read "Building a North American Community." It will change your entire outlook about what is going on as your hair stands on end in horror and shock.

Vic Lundquist said...

Anonymous:

Believe me, I am not trying to be contentious, but you are being evasive. You refuse to answer any of the questions. If we concede that Tancredo is our man, how does it matter if he is in dead last place?

As to your listed issues, if we cannot get oil pumped out of Alaska in a big way or get any nuclear plants built, how do you think any person will effectuate the conspiracies you promote in some stealth way? Will never happen. The super-highway will happen after we start seeing candidates abducted and ascending into saucers.

Jeff Fuller said...

I've missed some of "the fray" here, but wanted to chime in still.

Romney has a VERY solid RECORD on illegal immigration. And he's been consistently better on it than everybody in the race (except Tancredo . . . and Hunter's good too). This record is sinking in with voters as he is capturing the lion's share of voters who list Immigration as their #1 or #2 issue (look through the crosstabs in the most recent Iowa and NH polls if you don't believe me).

Here's from the campaign's press release a few weeks back (note the dates and that his record spans over the last 5 years):

FACT: As Governor Of Massachusetts, Governor Romney Took Action To Enforce Immigration Laws.

ENFORCEMENT: In December 2006, Governor Romney Signed A Memorandum Of Agreement With The Federal Government To Allow State Troopers To Enforce Federal Immigration Laws. "Governor Mitt Romney and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Assistant Secretary Julie L. Myers today announced the signing of a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) between the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and ICE, which will give specially trained Massachusetts State Troopers the authority to administer and enforce federal immigration laws in the Commonwealth. " (Office Of The Governor, "Governor Romney, ICE Sign Immigration Enforcement Pact," Press Release, 12/13/06)

IN-STATE TUITION: Governor Romney Vetoed In-State Tuition For Illegal Immigrants. "Romney also vetoed a number of outside sections of the budget, including:...A plan that would have permitted illegal aliens to pay the same in-state tuition rate at our public colleges and universities as Massachusetts citizens." (Office Of The Governor, "Romney Signs $22.402B Fiscal Year 2005 'No New Tax' Budget," Press Release, 6/25/04)

ENGLISH IMMERSION: Governor Romney Fought Efforts To Weaken Massachusetts' English Immersion Law. "But yesterday, Romney press secretary Shawn Feddeman said the governor will fight all attempts to slow the implementation of English immersion, known on the ballot as Question 2. ... 'He will veto anything that weakens or delays English immersion,' Feddeman said." (Anand Vaishnav, "Romney Firm On English Timetable," The Boston Globe, 1/24/03)

- In June 2002, Mitt Romney Said "The Approach Of English Immersion Is One That I Support. ... I Would Make English Immersion The Educational Norm For All Non-Native English Speakers." (John McElhenny, "Mitt Romney Endorses 'English Immersion' Education Plan," The Associated Press, 6/4/02)

DRIVER'S LICENCES: Governor Romney Opposed Efforts To Give Driver's Licenses To Illegal Immigrants. "'Those who are here illegally should not receive tacit support from our government that gives an indication of legitimacy,' the governor said, echoing arguments that opponents have voiced in the Commonwealth and in other states considering similar license measures. 'If they are here illegally, they should not get driver's licenses,' he said." (Scott S. Greenberger, "Romney Stand Dims Chances Of License For Undocumented," The Boston Globe, 10/28/03)

FACT: Governor Romney Would Take Action To Secure The Borders Through Physical And Virtual Fences.

Governor Romney: "In my view, there are several principles that need to be part of our immigration plan. First, to secure the border..." (Governor Mitt Romney, Interview On The Northern Alliance Radio Network, 1/27/07)

Governor Romney: "You've got to have a wall or fence or electronic surveillance. You have got to make sure we secure our border, that's first." (Fox News' "The O'Reilly Factor," 9/19/06)

FACT: Governor Romney Supports Strong Reforms To Stop Illegal Immigration And Encourage Legal Immigration.

Governor Romney: "The current system puts up a concrete wall to the best and brightest, yet those without skill or education are able to walk across the border. We must reform the current immigration laws so we can secure our borders, implement a mandatory biometrically-enabled and tamper-proof documentation and employment-verification system, and increase legal immigration into America." (David Yepsen, Op-Ed, "So Far, Romney's Been Most Impressive Republican," Des Moines Register, 7/11/06)

FACT: Governor Romney Opposes The McCain-Kennedy Bill And Any Form Of Amnesty For Illegal Immigrants.

Governor Romney: "McCain-Kennedy Isn't The Answer." "Another aspect of American sovereignty is the security of our borders. The current system is a virtual concrete wall against those who have skill and education, but it's a wide-open walk across the border for those that have neither. McCain-Kennedy isn't the answer. As governor, I took a very different approach. I authorized our state police to enforce federal immigration laws." (Governor Mitt Romney, Remarks At The Conservative Political Action Conference, Washington, D.C., 3/2/07)

FACT: Governor Romney Supports A Strong Employer-Verification System That Includes A Tamper Proof Worker Verification Card.

Governor Romney: "First, to secure the border, number two, have an employment verification system. This would be a card - a biometric card - that people who are not citizens would have and before an employer hires a non citizen they would have to look at the card, type in a number on a computer, and get verification from the federal government that this person is eligible for work in the U.S. If they hired someone not so eligible that company would be fined just like not paying taxes." (Governor Mitt Romney, Interview On The Northern Alliance Radio Network, 1/27/07)

FACT: Governor Romney Supports Empowering Local And State Authorities To Enforce Federal Immigration Laws.

Governor Romney Believes More State And Local Police Agencies Should Work With The Federal Government To Enforce Immigration Laws. "Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney said Tuesday that more state and local police agencies ought to consider making deals with the federal government to have their officers trained in enforcing elements of federal immigration law. ... 'I think it's a good idea for us to communicate that we intend to enforce our laws,' Romney said." (Jacques Billeaud, "Romney: More State, Local Police Should Get Immigration Training," The Associated Press, 3/13/07)
*****

Also, this campaign flyer from 1994 shows that Romney isn't just a "Johnny Come Lately" to the cause of combating illegal immigration. The flyer states that he supports "Tougher measures to combat illegal immigration."

Jeff Fuller said...

So that last comment was to convince readers that Romney has a VERY solid record on illegal immigration.

As far as where Romney will lead us in this area I wanted to commend Vic's points:

1. Tamper-proof ID cards.
2. Any business that employs an illegal alien will receive the same penalty as the business who does not pay its taxes.
3. He will finish building the border wall.
4. He will build up border enforcement big time.

In addition Romney as also promised:

5) To cut Federal funding to Sanctuary cities who are openly opposing the federal immigration laws.

3) To cut relative Federal funding to states who create "magnet" policies like in-state tuition breaks and state-sponsored scholarships for illegal immigrants.

4) Opposes Driver's licenses for illegal immigrants in ANY state (would probably seek a Federal statute that would prevent any state from offering such licences)

5) Deport all illegal immigrants caught breaking the law

6) "Back of the line" (and/or "go back home first") treatment of illegals wanting to become legalized.

Jeff Fuller said...

Numbering problem above . . . but you get the point.

Keith Steurer said...

jeff- you should post your long reply on immigration as a new blog post!

Nealie Ride said...

Tancredo guys,

I'm also from AZ and recognize the problem we have. The best way to solve the problem is to elect a competent problem-solver. That's Mitt--not Tancredo.

By the time you get to vote in the AZ primary, the race will be between Mitt and Rudy.

Rudy has been anything but conservative in his past on the topic of immigration.

Anonymous said...

At 5:38 PM, Vic Lundquist said...
Just remember this: Romney ALWAYS executes against his plans and promises. ALWAYS.

My, my.

Tanc does not look at his shoes when he is allowed to speak, which is only about 20-25% of the time the CFR controlled media selected "top tier" are allowed to speak. He is far from a single issue candidate. He is not allowed the time to speak about other things in the CFR controlled tv interviews and debates, but if you research the man, attend one of his events, you would know this.


Those of us who investigate all of the canadidates and not rely on MSM to tell us what to think know this and know that TOM TANCREDO is the only candidate in either campaign that puts America first. God help us all if sheeple do not wake up to that fact.


Jeff Fuller. Mitt Romney is still a free trading globalist affiliate member of the CFR. Me thinks he speaks with forked tongue and considers the $17M he has loaned his own campaign an investment. I think Vic Lundquist said it best: "Romney ALWAYS executes against his plans and promises. ALWAYS. "

That is definately a keeper and must be shared.

Another thing, Vic. Tanc is 'dead last' among how many people who actually participated in the poll?

Vic Lundquist said...

Anonymous, Mr. Tancredo is a nice man. I have no idea why his campaign has received no traction. But it has not. He is a very nice man and in a different situation, I could see him as a good leader of my district or even state. But he will not receive the nomination.

Is Mitt Romney perfect? No, he is not. Is he an all-around better and stronger conservative than Giuliani? Yes, he is. Also, he is not the autocratic/authoritarian that RG is. He has not failed at anything he has embarked upon in any venture or entity. The only failure I know of is when he lost to Ted Kennedy in the senate race, but in all the races Teddy ever had in the senate, that was the closest ever. That says something.

Romney will govern as a strong conservative and in my opinion, he will bring greater conservative results on all fronts than even Reagan did. Look carefully at all of his policy plans and promises. He will deliver to them.

nmerrill said...

Whoa! Slow down folks. I am a recent convert to the republican party just so I can vote for Sen. McCain so where is he in this banter. His is a campaign of integrity and experience. People are getting obviously tired of the "leading" candidates lip-service so why don't we mention Sen. McCain. He doesn't have the millions to self-contribute but he is the proven man to beat Hillary so it's not to late to jump on board just don't be expecting a paycheck in the mail. God bless our great country.

Nealie Ride said...

McCain is a great patriot. Yet, how do you love his immigration, campaign finance, and other proposals? Not so great, eh? They killed his campaign.

His ideas--not past performances as a U.S. soldier--are what disqualify him.

nmerrill said...

Time to do some actual research Nealie. I am done with this I have said my piece. God bless America and you nealie ride.