Numbers in parentheses are from the same firms' last Iowa poll from nearly 4 months ago
* Mitt Romney 28% (26%) +2
* Mike Huckabee 24% (8%) +16
* Fred Thompson 15% (13%) +2
* Rudy Giuliani 13% (14%) -1
* John McCain 6% (8%) -2
* Ron Paul 6% (2%) +4
Big move up for Huckabee, small move up for Paul. Everyone else fairly flat since 4 months ago.
Huckabee must be picking up many of the undecideds and Brownbackers (who had 5% last time).
There is no denying Huckabee’s surge . . . but until someone shows me that Romney's numbers are falling due to Huckabee’s rise then I’m not going to be too concerned.
Poll after poll that shows Huckabee "gaining" also shows that Mitt hasn't lost any support or that he's GAINED support over previous polls.
Actually, 30% may just be enough to win Iowa for Romney.
Some other tidbits from the write-up at WaPo:
Still, there are other signs in the poll suggesting that Romney remains the candidate to beat in the state and that gains for Huckabee may be harder to achieve in the next 43 days than they were over the past four months.
Romney outperforms Huckabee and other Republicans on key attributes, with two notable exceptions — perceptions of which candidate best understands people’s problems and which candidate is the most honest and trustworthy. On both, Romney and Huckabee are tied. At the same time, Iowa Republicans see the former Arkansas governor as less credible than Romney, Giuliani or McCain on some top issues.
That's just more evidence that Huckabee is “the new girlfriend” . . . but not the “marrying type” for the Iowa GOP. He truly is the Flavor of the Month (though a popular one)
The enthusiasm among Huckabee supporters was striking, particularly in a year in which Republicans have been considerably dissatisfied with the field of candidates. Half of those who now back the former Arkansas governor said they are very enthusiastic about him, compared with 28 percent of Romney’s backers.
Remember how “enthusiastic” all those Fred supporters were too? Expect this bounce to fade as records are exposed and he shows his thin skin.
A quarter of those surveyed said immigration is their biggest or second-biggest concern when considering whom to back on Jan. 3. The same percentage, 24 percent, highlighted the war in Iraq, and nearly as many, 21 percent, singled out terrorism and national security
On immigration, Romney has an edge: 27 percent said the former Massachusetts governor is best on the issue, while Huckabee and Rep. Tom Tancredo (Colo.) each received 13 percent.
Funny how they never state how many total percentage points Tancredo got in the poll . . . but if he’s getting 13% of people saying that immigration is issue #1 or #2 for a large segment (25% per the article) then he must be getting 3%.
We’ll see if Tancredo runs on through to the end here in Iowa . . . I’d like him to drop out because people that educated on immigration won’t be voting for Huckabee or Giuliani. Thompson and Romney will split that small slice of the pie IMO.
Still, it’s shocking that Huckabee is in 2nd place among voters keyed in on immigration . . . sounds like Iowa voters need to get educated on that one, eh?I invite you to look at the RCP Iowa Polling Averages to help you see the numbers that 1) confirm Huckabee's rise and 2) also confirm that Romney hasn't lost any support over Huck (Mitt's actually been trending back up in Iowa over the past 6 weeks as Huck has made his surge).