Buy at Amazon

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

FredHeads Will Decide the GOP Nominee

FredHeads will play a vital role in this race and WILL end up choosing the nominee, though, to their obvious chagrin, it will not be for their first choice candidate.

I've been watching and analyzing this race for two years now, reading and commenting nearly daily at forumns such as RedState, FreeRepublic, and Race42008. I've seen the slow dance of Fred's entrance, his surge in popularity and polls, and his steady decline. I've debated with FredHeads about both Fred and Mitt, their strengths and weaknesses. Interestingly, there has been a significant "warming" to Mitt among FredHeads and vice-a-versa over the last several weeks. Most Mitt supporters I know have Fred #2 on their list (me included . . . though it's a close call with Rudy because I like his executive experience).

Whether or not Fred officially drops out, it's clear that he does not have a realistic shot at becoming the nominee. His supporters will probably join other camps shortly.

Two online polls taken in the wake of last Saturday's results asked folks who they'd vote for in a "Fred-less" field.

Over at RedState (jokingly referred to as "FredState") this poll was asked . . . and here are the results as of now:

Now that South Carolina is done, who will you vote for in your state?
Selection Votes
John McCain 14%307
Mike Huckabee 6%135
Rudy Giuliani 11%233
Mitt Romney 68%1,458
2,133 votes total

Over at HotAir.com (another very pro-Fred blog), the question was even more direct:

For Fred Supporters: If Fred Thompson drops out of the race, which major candidate would you support?
Selection Votes
Rudy Giuliani 15%706
Mike Huckabee 4%213
John McCain 7%341
Mitt Romney 74%3,535
4,795 votes total

There is much speculation that Fred will endorse McCain, so HotAir's readership was asked if such an ensdorsement would effect their vote:

If Fred Thompson endorses John McCain, what impact would that have on your vote?
Selection Votes
No impact 88%2,862
Somewhat more likely to vote for McCain 6%205
Much more likely to vote for McCain 5%172
3,239 votes total

Looks like FredHeads are the independent-minded voters that we'd expect of those supporting such a plain-spoken candidate.

For further evidence of FredHeads breaking for Mitt check out the comment section at HotAir (sorry, I didn't read all 1400 of them).

Some are even calling for a Romney/Fred ticket! I wouldn't have a problem with that personally. As Mitt supporters, we welcome any and all FredHeads into the fold.

3 comments:

Gramma Hawkes said...

Check out Jim Geraghty's post this morning.
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDgyMmI2NmI3NTAwNDI5MjY1NTcxY2I5MGM1NzhjMmI=

He [Thompson] will not endorse, I am told by this source close to Thompson. I am also told, "he has no interest in a vice presidency or a cabinet position." At an "appropriate time" he will outline his plans for the near future.

Joe Mama said...

I've got high hopes for Romney. He's my guy. That said, the field is way too scrambled for us to start making predictions of what individual voters will do.

I hope Fred Heads swing toward Mitt. I think they will.

Huckster is losing steam as well. Who knows where his supporters will end up. They could swing toward McCain, Romney, or Giuliani. Hopefully they swing toward Mitt Romney but we don't know what they're going to do yet. Things got pretty tense in Iowa. It's kind of hard to say what voters will do until they actually vote.

Giuliani is losing steam as well. We'll see what happens in Florida. His supporters would swing toward who? I don't even know.

McCain is picking up steam but the people who oppose him are picking up steam too. Rudy does not intend to lose to McCain.

It's a confused race. I'm keeping my fingers crossed and waiting until the votes come in.

Anonymous said...

I think Huckabee is the biggest panderer, and most cynical person in the race. He did okay as Governor of Arkansas, and I don't want to take away from that. But the one skill he really has, that Mitt would need in a general election is going around turning out the vote among hard core Christian conservatives, alleviating their concerns about Mitt's religion, and speaking to people with no college education and getting out the vote in a general.

If you ask me, Huckabee could redeem himself with the republican party by going around and getting out the vote in a general election for Mitt.