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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Evangelical vs. non-Evangelical Scorecard: Some Surprising Results

Based on Exit polling from MI, NH, and IA (as well as real vote tallies from the three states):

Total voters thusfar: 1,226,000
Total "Evangelical/""Born Again" voters: 465,150
Total non-Evangelical voters: 760,850

Evangelical Numbers

Percent of total votes cast that were from Evangelicals: 38%

Evangelical Voters by candidate:

Huckabee -- 31%
Romney -- 31%
McCain -- 21%
Thompson -- 6.4%
Paul -- 5.5%
Giuliani -- 1.6%

I think many would be surprised to find out that as many Evagelicals have chosen to vote for Romney as they have for Huckabee. Romney has definitely proved that he can get the "Evangelical vote."

Non-Evangelical Numbers

Percent of total votes cast that were from non-Evangelicals: 62%

Non-Evangelical Voters by candidate:

Romney -- 38%
McCain -- 33%
Paul -- 9.1%
Huckabee -- 7.9%
Giuliani -- 5.7%
Thompson -- 3.4%

Yes folks . . . the appeal for Huckabee to non-Evangelical voters is LOWER than Ron Paul's. OUCH!! Huckabee definitely HAS NOT proven in any contest thusfar that he can get non-Evangelicals to support him in large numbers. This does not bode well for Huckabee from Feb 5th onward (let alone how in the world he could compete in a general election).

For all the talk of who can unify the three legs of the conservative base we are seeing living evidence that someone already is. Romney's supposed weakness among religious social conservatives/Evangelicals isn't bearing out in the votes cast thus far.

Roughly 1 out of every 3 Evangelicals who have cast their vote thus far have cast it for Romney.

Roughly 1 out of every 13 non-Evangelicals who have cast their vote thus far have cast it for Huckabee.

And therein lies the difference.

Mike Huckabee's sole purpose in this race right now is to dilute Romney's access to social conservative voters so that McCain can win and choose him as VP. There, I said it.

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