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Saturday, March 03, 2007

Romney Leads in Insiders Poll

Finally a poll that means something!

We all know that Romney is starting his slow rise in the national polls (which are 96.7% just about name recognition), but he still trails dramatically in those . . . usually to "Rock-star Rudy" and even McCain. Romney's polling much better in early primary states than in national polls.

But, here's a poll that actually has some more value to it (LA Times article with analysis and full pdf of the poll)

Essetially, RNC (Republican National Committee members) have Romney as the one they think will win the GOP nomination. Rudy and McCain trail behind. Romney was the 1st choice of 20% and 2nd choice of another 15% of the RNC members surveyed (with a HUGE 36% still undecided). However, 30% feel that Rudy is the GOP's best candidate to win the general election (with Romney coming in 2nd with 17%). This is significant, because it shows that much of Rudy's support derives from the "I'll support him because he can beat the Dems" camp . . . not "I think he'll be the best POTUS to represent GOP/Conservative values". However, I think that as Romney gains more traction, shows his effectiveness in speaking/debating, and leads the charge against the Dems, more and more people will realize that he could spank Hillary (or whoever)--they will then be less likely to support Rudy or McCain "because they can win".

One thing I love about Romney is that he's a "Win-Win" candidate in these respects. Yes "he'll be the best POTUS to represent our values" and Yes "I'll support him because he can beat the Dems". It's not a "one OR the other" with Romney like it is with EVERY other GOP candidate.

Strengthening this argument, when RNC members were asked point blank "Who would you like to see at the Republican Candidate for President?" Romney nearly won handily with 18% (Nearly doubling up on the other contenders, Rudy at 10% and McCain at 9% . . . Huckabee made a showing at 4%, but only 2% said Gingrich, and Brownback didn't even register on that question)

When asked "Is there any one candidate you would REFUSE to support?" only 1% said Romney or Rudy . . . while 11% said McCain. Their's been a LOT of press lately about how McCain's candidacy is imploding. This poll certainly supports those claims and are not the figures "the frontrunner" should be seeing.

Some other interesting tidbits from the poll: Romney had the highest "Favorable" rating at 83% and the lowest "Unfavorable" at 8% (excluding the lesser known Huckabee) Rudy tied Romney at 83%, but had a slightly higer "unfavorable rating" at 10%. Gingrich had a 15% unfavorable rating, Brownback 20%, and McCain a whopping 38%. Since I love numbers (and since it makes Romney look even stonger when displayed this way) some of the cadidate's Favorable/Unfavorable Ratios are below:

Romney 10.4
Giuliani 8.3
Gingrich 5.2
Brownback 2.3
McCain 1.5

However, the DNC members seem to be MUCH kinder to their own with the following Favorable/Unfavorable Ratios:

Obama 30.7
Richardson 29.7
Gore 18.2
Clinton 18.2
Edwards 14.8

Also, 98% of DNC members were "satisfied" with their current candidates compared to 85% of RNC members. Those Dems sure are riding high after BARELY gaining the congressional majority! Remember how all the talk before the 2006 elections were that Hillary would be "unelectable" in a general election? Well, I guess their one election cycle win was enough to give them LOADS of confidence to the point that Hillary's electability (or lack thereof) doesn't seem to concern them anymore. This is the silver lining of the Nov. losses as (which I'm very happy about!)

The DNC members are also kind to African-Americans, Hispanics, and Women with over 3/4th of respondants stating that our nation was ready for a president from each of those demographics (i.e. Barak, Richardson, or Hillary). The RNC wasn't far behind with a vast majority saying the same thing.

Was there any group/individual these DNC committee members weren't kind to? (surely not from this group of leaders for the "party of tolerance" right?) Well, while RNC members thought our nation was also ready for a Mormon president (77% at least), the DNC showed it's lack of religious tolerance by less than half of them (48%) stating that our country was ready for a Mormon president. I guess religious discrimination is exempt from their "codes of tolerance."

Moving on . . .

Of the DNC members surveyed, a full 59% of them said that Healthcare reform was among the three items of importance for the next POTUS to address (handily beating out Iraq . . . also, only 2% of them thought "Al-Qaeda/Osama bin Laden/Global Terrorism" merited a "top three" distinction, and a similar 2% for "Immigration Reform"). . . who better to beat them "on their turf" of Healthcare than Romney? That's one reason he has been more and more attacked by the DNC (frequent press releases) and the Mainstream media (MSM). They know he presents their biggest obstacle for their goal of getting a liberal in the White House.

This poll is an early sign of good things to come!


Big Jay said...

It can only help things if Romney keeps giving speeches like the one at CPAC where he just knocks them out of the park.

On the issue of electability, have you read the recent Chuck Schumer book 'Positively American' - If not, you should read it. He talks about how to win elections by speaking to moderates. I saw Chuck Schumer on the Charlie Rose show, and he was pretty impressive. It seems like much of the GOP base lacks the pragmatism present in among democrats. One thing I was struck by over and over, both during the interview, and then when I read the book, was how, from the Chuck Schumer model of specifically speaking to independent voters, Romney shines much brighter than the rest of the candidates.

That speech at the CPAC convention was both reassuring to conservatives and simultaneously spoke to independents like me. "If elected I will personally do a top to bottom review of the federal budget. I've done it in the private sector, I've done it with the 2002 winter olympics, I've done it with the state of Massachusets, and I can't wait to get my hands on the federal budget." (that's a rough quote)

Put Romney up against any of the democratic candidates and he'll mop up the floor with them. It's nice to see some more polls reflecting that judgment call among the RNC. The biggest risk for Romney is the primary, and that's it.

Just one question Jeff. You seem to consistently come down pretty hard on McCain. What's the deal with that? His campaign is imploding? I don't see it at this point in the game. My vote is obviously with Romney, I just don't have any particularly negative things to say against McCain. I like McCain, I just like Romney much better. Okay so that was like 3 questions. Here's one. Where are you at with McCain?

Big Jay said...

Oh, and just a follow up. I should have proofread that last comment. For the record, I don't like Chuck Schumer. I can't stand him. But the approach toward voters that he was advocating really impressed me.

Anonymous said...

I'd like to see some CPAC poll numbers on a Romney-Fuller ticket!