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Saturday, May 26, 2007

To Know Romney is to Love Him?

The biggest headline from this poll is that Romney increased his total poll numbers by 50% (as noted prviously on this blog) from 10% to 15%. However, I find the favorable/unfavorable trends for the GOP top-three to be the real story . . . and they are good news for Team Mitt!

McCain's "favorables" went DOWN from 39% to 33% and his "unfavorables" went UP from only 20% to 31% while the "undecideds/haven't heard enough" decreased from 41% to 35%.

Giuliani's "favorables" went DOWN from 60% to 53% and his "unfavorables" went UP from only 10% to 18% while the "undecideds/haven't heard enough" stayed pretty stable (decreased from 30% to 28%.)

In contrast Romney's "favorables" went UP from 20% to 28% and his "unfavorables" were fairly stable (slightly up--9% to 11%).

The real story here is that AS his previously huge "undecided's/haven't heard enough" figure of 71% went down to a still very large 60% his favorable/unfavorable percentages broke strongly in his favor (8% higher favorable and 2% higher unfavorable----NET PLUS 6% for Romney compared to a NET MINUS 17% for McCain and a NET MINUS 15% for Giuliani . . . Put another way, Romney GAINED 23% in net favorability on McCain and 21% on Giuliani). Assuming that this postive shift for Romney represents the opinions of the new 11% that no longer were "undecided/haven't heard enough" about him, that would mean that 4 out of 5 of these likely Republican voters formed a favorable view of Romney and only 1 out of 5 formed an unfavorable view of him.

Granted, it's probably not the best assumption to think that this shift is all just from the new 11% people now feeling informed about Romney. Why? By comparison, that would have been a statistically impossible way to explain the negative shift in the "undecided/haven't heard enough" numbers for Giuliani and McCain. The only mathmatically possible explanation for the strong negative shift for these candidates is that A SIGNIFICANT PORTION WHO PREVIOUSLY HAD FAVORABLE OPINIONS OF MCCAIN AND GIULIANI FLIP-FLOPPED ON THEIR OPINION OF THEM. Looks like "flip-flops" may be a bigger problem for Rudy and John than for Mitt, eh?

Now, if that's not over-analysis of one little poll, I don't know what is. Still, I thing that these figures play into team Romney's belief and mantra that "those who come to know Romney almost invariably break his way." His strong move in the early states lends credence to this belief. So, is Romney the political embodiment of the phrase "to know him is to love him?"


I'm still here said...


Denny said...

Thanks for the breakdown of the numbers. I enjoy that stuff.

I agree with everyone and think that Mitt is liked by folks once they get to know him. Heck, what's NOT to like about him?

How many of us can say that we've been married to the same women for 35 years and have five loving sons who support us, have made many million in the private sector helping to start well-known companies, have taken the Olympics disaster in Utah and turn it into a successful event, have brilliantly marvelous good looks, have a vision of greatness for America, and can unite the conservative movements' grass roots to focus on the defeat of Billary Clinton in 2008?

Mitt Romney is the great hope of not only the Republican party, but the entire conservative movement.

I have heard and do now believe that that Fred Thompson is basically kind of lazy.

Fred needs to remember that this fight against Hillary is not only about a defeat of her ideology, it is about the future of not only this Republic, but the entire free world. Can Fred actually say he will get up every morning for the next eight long years as a tough fighter, an innovative, reform-minded, government down-sizing fiscal conservative willing to veto the pork of the Congress? Mitt has strategies and plans to DEFEAT Islamofascism and get us off of our dangerous dependency on foreign sources of energy.

Mitt Romney has some very good ideas and plans for most of our pressing problems. Fred is a good movie actor with no major achievements while her served in the Senate. I like Fred. I just think that he would be better at the V.P. position than the presidential one. Fred for V.P.