Actually, it's a statistical tie since the margin of error is 4.6% . . . but Romney's upward trend here in Iowa is amazing. He was at just 5% in Jan, up to 11% in March and now is at 19% (and this is with Fred Thompson included.) Rudy (18%) and McCain (18%) are stagnant or slipping. However, "Undecided" is the big winner at 22%. Some of the "little guys" are hanging in there . . . but Tommy Thompson (who has lived here the last few months) is the tops there with 4% . . . nearly 5 times less than Romney.
Romney now leads polls in Iowa and New Hampshire . . . critics and opponents are taking notice. Those are a couple of good states to be leading in, eh? That's where Romney's been and that's where Romney's liked. Coincidence? Not a chance. Romney is much more impressive in person or in advertisements than he is in MSM articles.
From Zogsby himself:
Some more from that piece:
“Times have definitely changed. It used to be conventional wisdom that the worst thing a leader could face was a knock on the door and a voice calling out ‘Mike Wallace here from 60 Minutes - I have a few questions.’ Perhaps Mitt Romney proved this past weekend that this conventional wisdom doesn’t always hold true. . . . Overall, Romney’s surge makes this a true three–way battle on both sides of the aisle. Lurking in the background are other figures, including Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich on the Republican side and former Vice President Al Gore on the Democratic side, but there is no strong evidence that those potential candidacies will break through immediately into the top tier.”
Romney, who is also on top of the heap in the GOP race in New Hampshire, has nearly doubled since the last Zogby Iowa polling in March and has nearly quadrupled since January. Meanwhile, McCain has held steady over the same time period, while Giuliani has returned to where he was at the beginning of the year
after a solid bump up in March. The percentage of undecided in the GOP race has remained constant at 22% throughout.
Romney’s jump comes as his organization in Iowa develops, and as Giuliani has wrestled with the abortion question and reports that he might downplay corn-fed caucus-goers in favor of GOP voters who will choose their favored presidential candidates in the weeks immediately after the Iowa caucuses. Romney is performing quite well among the very conservative and the conservative, while Giuliani has lost significant support among those likely voters – this coming after Romney’s strong performance on the CBS newsmagazine program 60 Minutes.