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Tuesday, May 29, 2007

An outlier poll? Or back to reality for Romney in Iowa & New Hampshire?

Hat tip to Race 4 2008 for the results.

New results from the McCain Team's favorite polling company show that McCain is still ahead in all three early states. These results go against 3 recent Iowa polls and and 2 recent NH polls showing Romney with a lead or tied for the lead. So, are the results from this polling company "real" or are they just "outliers?"

Format below Current results (last month, Dec 2006 result). Click on links for more complete trend lines.
American Research Group GOP Iowa Caucus
  • McCain - 25% (26, 26)
  • Giuliani - 23% (19, 28)
  • Romney - 16% (14,6)
  • Gingrich - 8% (8,8)
  • F. Thompson - 6% (13,ni)
  • Brownback - 3% (1,1)
  • All others - 2% or less
  • Undecided - 10% (13,14)

American Research Group GOP New Hampshire Primary

  • McCain - 30% (29,35)
  • Romney - 23% (24,9)
  • Giuliani - 21% (17,28)
  • Gingrich - 4% (4,15)
  • F. Thompson - 3% (7,ni)
  • All others - 1% or less
  • Undecided - 16% (14,16)

American Research Group GOP SC Primary

  • McCain - 32% (36, 35)
  • Giuliani - 23% (23, 28)
  • F. Thompson - 13% (10, ni)
  • Romney - 10% (6, 5)
  • Gingrich - 6% (6,15)
  • All others - 1% or less
  • Undecided - 11% (12,16)

Now some commentary (from actual comments I made athe Race 4 2008 site.)

IOWA POLL:

I want ARG to explain to me what an “Independant likely Caucus-goer” is? Independants CAN’T PARTICIPATE IN THE IOWA GOP CAUCUS. McCain got nearly half of these independants and they are responsible for a full 2% or slightly more.

This is maybe an obvious sign that this firm isn’t doing the most rigorous polling around.

Also, Tommy Thompson at only 2%? All the other polls have him between 4-7% and he’s been working Iowa HARD and it’s been showing in the polls. He’s from neighboring Wisconsin and might just get a top 4 finish at the Ames Straw Poll (depending who participates). Don’ think they screened very well when polling.

Not too sure about the absolute numbers in this poll, but, as always, we may make something of the trend lines.

McCain’s trend is steady since Dec . . . but down since March.

Giuliani’s trend is down since Dec, and way down from Feb . . . but he did have a little “statistical correction” after a 10% loss from March to April

Romney’s had a steady trend up 6% in Dec to 16% now–that’s pretty strong.

Fred Thompson is down big, but this will probably undergo a bit of a statistical correction upwards next month (just like Rudy had).

RON PAUL CONTINTUES TO GET 0% . . . but his folks sure can make a lot of noise online!!

Who are the 6-9 Iowans in this poll who want Gilmore? They should be tracked down and punished.

New Hampshire Poll:

30% Independant’s included (and they should be here in the open primary . . . though many think that many Indy’s will be drawn over into a tight Democratic primary vote that day instead . . . or at least cast their anti-Hillary consciece vote). McCain still leads strongly with Indy’s, but Romney does slightly better than Rudy)

All top three amazingly close among Republicans (25%, 24%, and 24%).

Trends:
McCain: Very stable since Dec. with a recent recovery from 23% to 30%.
Giuliani: Slight downward trend overall, but a recent mild correction/recovery upwards.
Romney: Prety strong and steady upward trend overall
F. Thompson: 3% . . . uh-oh! That’s a LOT of work to do. Don’t see this southerner selling well in NH. Downward trend shows that the initial idea of a of a Fred Thompson candidacy sounds better than the impending reality (same downward trend as in Iowa).

South Carolina Poll:

Trends:
McCain: fairly steady with a slight recent tick downwards
Giuliani: Mild downward trend.
Romney: Moderate upward trend (or just an aberration?) into Double Digits.

Thopmson: Will obviously show strong in the South, but will he hang in if he’s not top three in Iowa and New Hampshire? (which is looking pretty hard for him to accomplish with this late of an entry). The only way he could would be to try to compete against Giuliani for some big states on Super Teusday, but that will be a difficult task. I’m not seeing any strong strategy/plan for them.

Huckabee: ONLY 1% for a southern governor who did well in the SC debate? Not good news at all for the Huckster.

National Poll:

Also, I think this is probably premature, but at least one NATIONAL poll has Romney past McCain and into 2nd place. The immigration issue may be playing strong here. This probably won't be confirmed by other polls anytime soon, but, again the trends are very positive for Romney.

2 comments:

Jonny said...

ARG polls are junk. I wouldn't put any faith in them, whatsoever. Romney is at at least 20% in Iowa, and Thompson is at 9-10%. This same poll had Thompson and Romney at 6 and 8 percent two weeks ago nationally, when Thompson was at a peak and Romney was moving upward.

Jeff Fuller said...

Still, I think, if they're consistant in their incorrect methods then the results are still useful for trends. And the trends in all the early states is positive for Romney.