Romney's Latest Swing Through Iowa

Romney had a strong swing through Iowa the last couple of days. His "Ask Mitt Anything" event last night in West Des Moines was aired live on C-Span. The Elect Romney in 2008 Blog has some video highlights at this link

Also, from the Heading Right blog:

Mitt Romney, Iowa Public TV Interview

Mitt Romney, Live At The Greater Des Moines Partnership Government Policy Council

Mitt Romney, Press Availability

Don't forget that Romney will be on "Iowa Press" for the whole 30 min show---airs on Iowa Public Television at 7:30 PM Friday or the re-airing on Sunday at 11:30 AM.

Romney For President Names Polk County City Chairs

Wednesday, May 30, 2007
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Romney Press Shop (857) 288-6390

Boston, MA - Romney for President today announced Chairs for nearly every city in Polk County, Iowa's largest county and home to Des Moines and its surrounding suburbs.

"In our efforts to build an aggressive, grassroots organization in Iowa, we are ensuring no stone is left unturned in Iowa's largest county," said Iowa Campaign Manager Gentry Collins. "Each of these individuals will play a major part in winning this campaign and recruiting neighbors and friends to support Governor Romney's agenda."

Romney for President Polk County Honorary Chair Senator Brad Zaun said, "A caucus campaign requires local volunteers for success. Each chair will ensure that Governor Romney runs the best campaign in Polk County. This team will work together as we strongly believe that Mitt Romney is the best candidate to lead our nation as President."

Romney for President Polk County City Chairs:

- Honorary County Chair - Senator Brad Zaun
- Polk County Chair - Connie Schmett
- Altoona - Jon Gruber
- Ankeny - W. Carl Livingston
- Clive - Councilman Scott Cirksena
- Des Moines - David Payer
- Grimes - Brian Jones
- Johnston - Andy Christiansen
- Mitchellville - Chelsey Harding
- Pleasant Hill - Alex Clark
- Polk City - Kathy Arndt
- Runnells - Dean & Diane Johnson
- Urbandale - Senator Brad Zaun
- West Des Moines - George Steenson
- Windsor Heights - Beverly Poncin

LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ORGANIZATION IN OUR STRONGEST COUNTY. GO MITT!!

An outlier poll? Or back to reality for Romney in Iowa & New Hampshire?

Hat tip to Race 4 2008 for the results.

New results from the McCain Team's favorite polling company show that McCain is still ahead in all three early states. These results go against 3 recent Iowa polls and and 2 recent NH polls showing Romney with a lead or tied for the lead. So, are the results from this polling company "real" or are they just "outliers?"

Format below Current results (last month, Dec 2006 result). Click on links for more complete trend lines.

American Research Group GOP Iowa Caucus

• McCain - 25% (26, 26)
• Giuliani - 23% (19, 28)
• Romney - 16% (14,6)
• Gingrich - 8% (8,8)
• F. Thompson - 6% (13,ni)
• Brownback - 3% (1,1)
• All others - 2% or less
• Undecided - 10% (13,14)

American Research Group GOP New Hampshire Primary

• McCain - 30% (29,35)
• Romney - 23% (24,9)
• Giuliani - 21% (17,28)
• Gingrich - 4% (4,15)
• F. Thompson - 3% (7,ni)
• All others - 1% or less
• Undecided - 16% (14,16)

American Research Group GOP SC Primary

• McCain - 32% (36, 35)
• Giuliani - 23% (23, 28)
• F. Thompson - 13% (10, ni)
• Romney - 10% (6, 5)
• Gingrich - 6% (6,15)
• All others - 1% or less
• Undecided - 11% (12,16)

Now some commentary (from actual comments I made athe Race 4 2008 site.)

IOWA POLL:

I want ARG to explain to me what an “Independant likely Caucus-goer” is? Independants CAN’T PARTICIPATE IN THE IOWA GOP CAUCUS. McCain got nearly half of these independants and they are responsible for a full 2% or slightly more.

This is maybe an obvious sign that this firm isn’t doing the most rigorous polling around.

Also, Tommy Thompson at only 2%? All the other polls have him between 4-7% and he’s been working Iowa HARD and it’s been showing in the polls. He’s from neighboring Wisconsin and might just get a top 4 finish at the Ames Straw Poll (depending who participates). Don’ think they screened very well when polling.

Not too sure about the absolute numbers in this poll, but, as always, we may make something of the trend lines.

McCain’s trend is steady since Dec . . . but down since March.

Giuliani’s trend is down since Dec, and way down from Feb . . . but he did have a little “statistical correction” after a 10% loss from March to April

Romney’s had a steady trend up 6% in Dec to 16% now–that’s pretty strong.

Fred Thompson is down big, but this will probably undergo a bit of a statistical correction upwards next month (just like Rudy had).

RON PAUL CONTINTUES TO GET 0% . . . but his folks sure can make a lot of noise online!!

Who are the 6-9 Iowans in this poll who want Gilmore? They should be tracked down and punished.

New Hampshire Poll:

30% Independant’s included (and they should be here in the open primary . . . though many think that many Indy’s will be drawn over into a tight Democratic primary vote that day instead . . . or at least cast their anti-Hillary consciece vote). McCain still leads strongly with Indy’s, but Romney does slightly better than Rudy)

All top three amazingly close among Republicans (25%, 24%, and 24%).

Trends:
McCain: Very stable since Dec. with a recent recovery from 23% to 30%.
Giuliani: Slight downward trend overall, but a recent mild correction/recovery upwards.
Romney: Prety strong and steady upward trend overall
F. Thompson: 3% . . . uh-oh! That’s a LOT of work to do. Don’t see this southerner selling well in NH. Downward trend shows that the initial idea of a of a Fred Thompson candidacy sounds better than the impending reality (same downward trend as in Iowa).

South Carolina Poll:

Trends:
McCain: fairly steady with a slight recent tick downwards
Giuliani: Mild downward trend.
Romney: Moderate upward trend (or just an aberration?) into Double Digits.

Thopmson: Will obviously show strong in the South, but will he hang in if he’s not top three in Iowa and New Hampshire? (which is looking pretty hard for him to accomplish with this late of an entry). The only way he could would be to try to compete against Giuliani for some big states on Super Teusday, but that will be a difficult task. I’m not seeing any strong strategy/plan for them.

Huckabee: ONLY 1% for a southern governor who did well in the SC debate? Not good news at all for the Huckster.

National Poll:

Also, I think this is probably premature, but at least one NATIONAL poll has Romney past McCain and into 2nd place. The immigration issue may be playing strong here. This probably won't be confirmed by other polls anytime soon, but, again the trends are very positive for Romney.

Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures: McCain Campaign Regurgitates MSM & DNC Lies About Romney Record . . . But Romney Never was a Liberal

McCain's deeply flawed immigration bill has been a recent "flash point" for criticism. McCain has obviously taken the attacks on this horrible legislation a little too personally and has wrongly punched back on the personal level (similar to his personal attack on Romney's conviction during the 2nd debate that he switches positions "during even numbered years".)

From a Newsweek article:

Referring to Romney's stance, McCain said: "Maybe I should wait a couple of weeks and see if it changes because it's changed in less than a year from his position before."

Then followed his "varmint" comment which was an obviously planned line fed to him from someone in the campaign.

So, what's so desperate about attacking a cheif rival? The attacks, on the surface, speak of an general unease in the McCain camp about their own failings and Romney's continued successes. But it's not just the attacks, but the substance of the attacks and the actual accusations being leveled. McCain's campaign aides are sensing the fear of a Rising Romney and have resorted to DNC-like charges at Mitt's apparent lack of core convictions.

From Newsweek recently regarding the varmint comment:

To which John Weaver, a top McCain aide replied: “It was a joke and, by the way, Mitt Romney should be mocked! There isn’t a single issue in politics he hasn’t flip-flopped on."

From a Mother Jones article another top McCain aid said:

"Mitt Romney has been consistent in one regard: that nearly every position he holds now is opposite of what it was when he was governor of Massachusetts."

That same article also had the following zinger:

He [Romney] previously held all of the same positions as Giuliani -- he's just trying to lie about them while Giuliani is standing for what he believes in.

This is a segue into the deeper theme they are trying to lay. A smattering of recent quotes is enlightening:

Deseret News:

Foremost is the charge that he's a campaign convert to conservatism after running as a more moderate or liberal candidate in Massachusetts.

Even some conservative commentators like Deroy Murdock (a big-time Rudy supporter), get in on the game from time to time.

Romney is either a true, rock-ribbed conservative who played a Rockefeller Republican to get elected in Massachusetts, or he is a genuine, limousine liberal portraying a conservative to win the 2008 GOP nomination. This fine thespian has lost himself so thoroughly in both these roles that no one really knows where the performer ends and the characters begin.

Bill Maher recently said "If Mitt Romney were a movie, it would be "Say Anything." (I'm sure he wouldn't apply that same critical humor to his buddy Bill Clinton, eh?)

The overall image being portrayed of Romney (and don't ever think these lines of attack aren't driven by the media moguls of the MSM) is that he's a man with no convictions, who will say or do anything if it is politically expedient. However, their only other "dig" against Romney is not just his religious affiliation, but that he's unabashedly a devout and practicing member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints--somehow implying that he's TOO dedicated and true to his core convictions, namely his faith and his family. It would be in their best interest to decide on one line of attack. If they keep pounding both of these drums even the average American voter will realize they are being sold a false bill of goods. We won't be buying it guys!

I've blogged before (here and here) that Romney was never close to being the liberal that some are claiming. He was actually far more of a conservative than even a moderate. Below I'll put in the image again of one of his 1994 campaign flyers and let you judge. Aside from the well documented, AND WELCOMED, shift on abortion he's been rock solid as a conservative then and now (BTW Romney vetoed the "employer mandate" portion of the MA healthcare plan)



I'd like to see McCain, his aides, and the DNC explain their position that Mitt has "flipped on every political issue" when he's been consistant on 23 of the 24 (or 96%) issues in this flyer. They're busy enough spinning their own problems, so I probably shouldn't "pile on" right now!

UPDATE:

I have personally posted the above at Red State, Free Republic, My Man Mitt, and Elect Romney in 2008 (click on links to see the discussion threads).

It has also been "picked up" and broadcast at Race-4-2008, The Brody File, Hugh Hewitt's Townhall Blogsite, and who knows where next? Help spread around this message that debunks the "Romney was a liberal" or "He's flip flopped on every position" memes.

Ask Mitt Anything!

There will be an "Ask Mitt Anything" campaign visit in West Des Moines on May 30th. See below for details and RSVP:

To Know Romney is to Love Him?

The biggest headline from this poll is that Romney increased his total poll numbers by 50% (as noted prviously on this blog) from 10% to 15%. However, I find the favorable/unfavorable trends for the GOP top-three to be the real story . . . and they are good news for Team Mitt!

McCain's "favorables" went DOWN from 39% to 33% and his "unfavorables" went UP from only 20% to 31% while the "undecideds/haven't heard enough" decreased from 41% to 35%.

Giuliani's "favorables" went DOWN from 60% to 53% and his "unfavorables" went UP from only 10% to 18% while the "undecideds/haven't heard enough" stayed pretty stable (decreased from 30% to 28%.)

In contrast Romney's "favorables" went UP from 20% to 28% and his "unfavorables" were fairly stable (slightly up--9% to 11%).

The real story here is that AS his previously huge "undecided's/haven't heard enough" figure of 71% went down to a still very large 60% his favorable/unfavorable percentages broke strongly in his favor (8% higher favorable and 2% higher unfavorable----NET PLUS 6% for Romney compared to a NET MINUS 17% for McCain and a NET MINUS 15% for Giuliani . . . Put another way, Romney GAINED 23% in net favorability on McCain and 21% on Giuliani). Assuming that this postive shift for Romney represents the opinions of the new 11% that no longer were "undecided/haven't heard enough" about him, that would mean that 4 out of 5 of these likely Republican voters formed a favorable view of Romney and only 1 out of 5 formed an unfavorable view of him.

Granted, it's probably not the best assumption to think that this shift is all just from the new 11% people now feeling informed about Romney. Why? By comparison, that would have been a statistically impossible way to explain the negative shift in the "undecided/haven't heard enough" numbers for Giuliani and McCain. The only mathmatically possible explanation for the strong negative shift for these candidates is that A SIGNIFICANT PORTION WHO PREVIOUSLY HAD FAVORABLE OPINIONS OF MCCAIN AND GIULIANI FLIP-FLOPPED ON THEIR OPINION OF THEM. Looks like "flip-flops" may be a bigger problem for Rudy and John than for Mitt, eh?

Now, if that's not over-analysis of one little poll, I don't know what is. Still, I thing that these figures play into team Romney's belief and mantra that "those who come to know Romney almost invariably break his way." His strong move in the early states lends credence to this belief. So, is Romney the political embodiment of the phrase "to know him is to love him?"

Romney solidifies top-tier status in another Iowa Poll

Romney's lead (actually still a statistical tie in the three recent polls that include Fred Thompson and Newt) here in Iowa is confirmed by yet another recent poll. Romney had been between 8-9% in the last three iterations of this poll (even as recently as 6 weeks ago). This is a huge jump up for Romney and the trends are very positive.

I think it's realistic to call NH a true lead for Romney and Iowa still a statistical tie (that 30% one was without Fred and Newt . . . and Fred's getting in it seems). There's more room for growth for Romney folks!!

Freedom of the Press? Romney on ABC/Iran Story

Romney's got it Right Again!

Responsible use of our freedoms is paramount. Just as "Freedom of Speech" does not grant someone the right to scream "FIRE!!" in a theater (where people could die from the scramble out), the media and those infamous "leakers" in DC do not have a protected right to put others in danger. Romney's right that this was completely irresponsible and potentially dangerous.

A Fun Read on the Ames Straw Poll

Rodger Simon of The Politico has written a pretty funny piece on the Ames Straw Poll.

It is undeniable that the better funded and better organized candidates stand to do the best there . . . but, it is also undeniable that no one can win without actually turning out Iowan supporters (meaning you actually need supporters . . . i.e. money alone is not enough). Let anyone you know in Iowa that might be a potential Romney supporter to plan on the date (Aug 11th) and contact the campaign about going.

Update:
A more serious take on the straw poll was in today's Des Moines Register. That piece included this gem:

The results also show that Mitt Romney leads among people planning to attend the straw poll. The former Massachusetts governor, who leads the GOP field in the most recent Iowa Poll, frequently mentions the straw poll while campaigning in Iowa.

According to the poll, 34 percent of likely straw poll attendees support Romney, reflecting his overall support among Iowa Republicans.

Now the expectations are high. Let's help Romney deliver!

Photos from Josh Romney's recent visit

Got some of these photos from a Crystal, a new Romney field staffer here in Iowa.



Inside with Josh Romney, Senator Hahn, Mayor Carol Wade, George &Thelma Nopoulos


This one has (from left to right) Senator Jim Hahn, Marilyn Wedel, Josh Romney, Luke Martz and Crystal. Josh admiring the Iowa Corn fields (ready for a new planting soon)

Josh Romney's 99 Iowa County Tour--Five Brothers Blog

Last week Josh Romney made his way around parts of eastern Iowa. He made an entry over at Five Brothers Blog after finding "Mittman Road".

Romney no longer a secret

With Gov. Romney leading in polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, & Michigan its evident that the conservative base is finding their candidate. The first quarter fundraising victory combined with a couple stellar debate performances are introducing more Iowa Caucus attendees to Gov. Romney. Mitt may not have the name recognition of candidates from larger states, or those who have previously run for president.
But, its clear that the national exposure(Time magazine,etc.) is helping introduce Gov. Romney to the Hawkeye State.

As Mitt's support grows, the "expectations game" of the upcoming Iowa Straw Poll becomes a factor. I would not be surprised to see at least one "top tier" candidate announce that they will not participate in Ames, in order to "save face". If its appparent that Romney will win the Iowa Straw Poll look for other candidates to make negative remarks about the event and how they will not participate for sake "of principle." Or will only make a "token effort" for the event. The "Iowa Straw Poll" was a big factor in 1999 and its stature has grown.

I was in Des Moines last week and had the opportunity to visit the Romney Iowa Headquarters and chat with a couple of the field staffers. I was very impressed with their professionalism. Mitt has a fine organization in place.

Iowan Republicans want Rice and Newt in race more than Fred Thompson

OK, so it's close between those three, but only 44% of GOPers here in Iowa want Fred Thompson in the race. Maybe it's a lower name ID than the others, but I think Fred will have a hard time competing here in Iowa with the head start that all the others have on him.

"Romney Democrats?" . . . it's already happening

Some more interesting details from the new Iowa poll that Thomas linked to below(I've got some more commentary on that over at Iowans for Romney).

Remember the "Reagan Democrats" that helped Ronnie to landslide victories? Be prepared for a lot of "Romney Democrats"!!

Romney's still a relative unknown to many . . . but he's already got equal or greater crossover support from Democrats here in Iowa than anyone else. McCain, Romney, and Obama all have about 15% of those of the opposing party ready to vote for them. Giuliani is lower at 13%. Hillary would only be able to poach 6% of Republicans at the caucus.

So, don't worry too much about Romney's "electability" (or worse, don't feel compelled to vote for the wrong candidate just because of some unproved, but assumed theory that they will have a better chance in the general election. Reagan was a conservative who loved America and exuded optimism . . . sounds like Romney!!!) Iowa is not just the first primary state, but it's the first caucus in the general election and a swing state to boot. Romney vs. Hillary here would be a beautiful thing to keep Iowa Red next presidential election!!

Romney SURGES ahead in Iowa!!! Double digit lead.

The new Des Moines Register poll shows an AMAZING jump for Romney up to 30%!!! He has a double digit lead over Giuliani and McCain (17% and 18% respectively). This is among "Likely Republican Caucus-goers" and exclude unannounced possible candidates (F. Thompson and Newt namely).

However, these figures are far from "set in stone":

The race at this early stage could take many twists and turns before the Iowa finish line is reached in January.

Twelve percent of those polled are undecided or declare themselves uncommitted. Among those stating a preference, 87 percent say they could still be persuaded to support another candidate as their first choice.

Why is he surging? Some ideas below:

Romney’s front-runner status in the new Des Moines Register poll could stem in part from solid performances in the two national debates, his work in building a network of supporters in Iowa, his fundraising prowess and money spent on TV ads, said J. Ann Selzer, The Register’s pollster.

“His success raising money seems to have aroused caucusgoers’ interest, prompting them to take a serious look at the candidate,” Selzer said. “He’s helped by the top two qualifications Republican caucusgoers are looking for in a candidate — experience as a governor and as CEO.”

The poll shows Romney is regarded favorably by 74 percent of likely caucus participants and unfavorably by just 13 percent, with the rest unsure how they feel about him.

He does better in the poll among older Iowans, who tend to be more faithful in attending the caucuses, than he does among younger ones. Roughly one-third of those 55 or older make him their first choice, compared with support from about one-fifth of adults younger than 35.

Some opinions from participants:

Republican caucusgoers place a premium on a candidate who has experience as a governor, with 60 percent saying they are more likely to support a person with that experience on their resume.

“Just being elected out east, where the hard core of the Democrats are, speaks pretty highly of” Romney, said poll participant Edward Green, 57, of Davenport.

“He’s got a good family and his children are on the right track,” said Green, a minister who does missions work for Assemblies of God International.

Green wonders, however, whether Romney — a Mormon — can win the Republican nomination because of his religion. “People will poke and prod at his religion — a lot like they did with Kennedy in the ’60s.” John F. Kennedy, a Democrat, was the first Catholic elected president.

Most likely Republican caucus participants — 71 percent — say it makes no difference in their choice of a candidate if that person would be elected the first Mormon president. However, 22 percent say that would make their support for the candidate less likely.

Six percent say electing the first Mormon president would make them more apt to support that person and 1 percent are unsure.

Iowa is a nice microcosm proving that those who get to know Romney . . . like Romney. His campaign is picking up steam and will be hard to derail. Full steam ahead to the Ames Straw Poll!!!