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Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Newest: "Would you vote for a Mormon?" poll

Pollsters at "Rasmussen Reports" have just released the latest in the string of many "would you ever vote for a Mormon?" polls. This one puts the figure at 43% and the report plays up the apparent story with the headline "Election 2008: 43% Would Never Vote for Mormon Candidate".

Well, that number is just a tad higher than the 37% figure that was reported by the LA Times/Bloomberg poll a few months back. I blogged about that one here. In a nutshell, these figures in NO WAY translate into the picture (AKA "implied headline") that some people are trying to paint . . . that "43% Would Never Vote for Romney".

Why? Well, first off, this poll was of all likely voters (R's, D's, and I's). . . obviously liberals and those aware of and uncomfortable with the fact that nearly all Mormon's are strong social conservatives would never vote for one.

Also, some great signs for Romney are hidden in this poll:

Among the 41% with no opinion of Romney, just 27% say they would consider voting for a Mormon.

That shows that Romney has lots of room for improved name recognition. But even more to the point of this whole Mormon issue is that only about one quarter of the likely voters surveyed who don't know Romney would vote for a Mormon. That confirms the theory that people are just more uncomfortable with a "different" religion--espeicially when they cannot put a name/face with it.

How do I come to that? Well, since 38% of all respondants said they'd consider voting for a Mormon, if we subtract out the 41% who had no opinion of Romney (along with their 27% "consider voting for a Momron" figure)---that leaves us with 59% of folks who DO have an opinion of Romney (be it good or bad). My quick calculation of these figures shows that nearly 47% of people with ANY opinion of Romney would consider voting for a Mormon. Counting out those with unfavorable views of Romney (many/most of which will be liberals/Democrats who will not vote in the GOP primary) and the figure gets up to nearly 100%.

The article then helps confirm what I've been saying all along: That these polls about Mormonism are not directly translatable to Romney himself.

It is possible, of course, that these perceptions might change as Romney becomes better known and his faith is considered in the context of his campaign. Currently, just 19% of Likely Voters are able to identify Romney as the Mormon candidate from a list of six potential Presidential candidates.

This shows that Romney may have a pretty "open slate" to work with and I'm convinced he'll shine through and dispel any qualms about his religious affiliation.

However, should this following part be worrisome?

Half (53%) of all Evangelical Christians say that they would not consider voting for a Mormon candidate.

Again, I just think that this unmasks a lack of information/education of Mormonism by Evangelicals in general, and how that relates to Romney in specific.

On the brighter side, at least the American populus is more intolerant of some other religions than Mormonism . . .
The response to a theoretical Mormon candidate is far less negative than the response to a Muslim candidate or an atheist. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Likely Voters say they would never consider voting for a Muslim Presidential candidate. Sixty percent (60%) say the same about an atheist.


Anonymous said...

I'll support Mitt, as long as he don't let them queers get married. That's issue #1 for me.

Cancer Man said...

I'm supporting Mitt for sure. McCain is a phony on gay marriage just like he is on immigration.

Perhaps McCain will let gays marry for $2,000 a piece just likes his plan to give out green cards to any illegal aliens with the same cash.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone wonder about what the mormon church would require of Romney? Does anyone know that Mitt Romney took several blood oaths in the temple? Is anyone aware that in these blood oaths he swore his time, talents, gifts, political influence and anything else he got to the mormon church? More information here

Alright, so he has the view that gay marriage sucks. We'll take that as understood, but then you've got other issues. Since he swore that he would use everything he had and everything that he got to build the mormon church, you should consider more than the fear of fudgepackers.

Anonymous said...

Romney has a pro-gay stance, if you don't believe me, read here during the senate race a few years ago, his view was that he supported homosexuals to a greater extent than Ted Kennedy!

Jeff Fuller said...

All these Romney haters need to stop living in the past and distorting Romney's record for their own purposes.

The "Blood oath" thing is a major distortion as well. I'm a temple-going Mormon and have never made any blood-oaths (sure sounds scary though, eh?)

We do make serious covenants in the temples but Romney and Harry Reid have been under these covenant obligations their entire political and professional careers and it doesn't seem to have guided their actions/decisions in a noticable way. People just need to look at the person and the record to gauge future performance.

Yoda said...

I'd vote for Jeff Fuller for public office, but only if he stays here in Iowa. He's a Mormon and a helluva great guy.

Anonymous said...

This is in reply to jeff Fullers comment about deth oaths. The reason you dont know about them is because the temple ordinances were changed in 1990 and you undoubtedly went through sometime after the change. Mitt did not. He, like me, went through before 1990 and took the death oaths. Just google mormon temple transcripts and you can find all fo the different versions on the net.

Anonymous said...

Consider this: Mr. Mitt says his faith will not effect his decisions in the White House. What kind of man has his Faith but does not follow its teachings when making decisions?

Hypocrisy: The false claim to or pretense of having admirable principles, beliefs, or feelings