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Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Romney Transcends Negative Opinions of GOP in Recent Poll

The MSNBC/Wall Street Journal poll released today has some interesting nuggets . . . and one key finding that his HUGELY positive for Mitt.

First, some background on the poll. It was a survey of 1,011 adults . . . not likely voters (which usually makes polls trend more liberal) and was conducted July 24-27.

Respondents Political Identification:

  • Independent 41%
  • Democrat 30%
  • Republican 22%

Political Views:

  • Conservative 37%
  • Moderate 35%
  • Liberal 23%

Would you like to see Mitt Romney as president some day, or not?

  • Would like to see 24%
  • Would not like to see 50%

Sounds Bad, right? I mean 50% don't want to see him as POTUS . . . but look by comparison at Palin's numbers:

Would you like to see Sarah Palin as president some day, or not?

  • Would like to see 21%
  • Would not like to see 67%

Mitt obviously has much less of a hill to climb right now that Palin.

But for the real important point, let's start by looking at the approval ratings for political figures AND political parties:

Approval Ratings: Positive / Negative [Net]

  • Hillary Clinton: 53% / 31% [+22%]
  • Barack Obama: 55% / 34% [+21%]
  • Mitt Romney: 28% / 20% [+8%]
  • Democratic Party: 42% / 37% [+5%]
  • Sonia Sotomayor: 31% / 27% [+4%]
  • Joe Biden: 38% / 36% [+2%]
  • Sarah Palin: 32% / 43% [-11%]
  • Republican Party: 28% / 41% [-13%]
  • Nancy Pelosi: 25% / 44% [-19%]

Now let’s look at these numbers in a different way that may take some of the sampling bias out (like if they polled too many Dems/libs . . . which it seems like). By comparing each persons approval rating adusted for their political party. I’ll take their net approval/disapproval rating and subtract their parties net rating (Dem. at +5%, GOP at -13% . . . a whopping 18% gap when most generic 2010 congressional ballots are dead even . . . which is proof this poll oversampled Dems/libs). This was not in the poll, but was my own idea to break down the data.

Difference between politician's net approval rating and the approval rating of their party:

  • Mitt +21%
  • Hillary +17%
  • Barack +16%
  • Palin +2%
  • Sotomayor -1%
  • Biden -3%
  • Pelosi -24%

In other words, Mitt’s net approval is a full 21% better than his party. This,, while even Pres Obama is only 16% better than his party, and Palin is only 2% better than her party. To have accomplished this, Mitt must be bringing in moderate Dems and indys to like him. That's a good good sign for him as a general election candidate. He's obviously got a lot of work to do to get all those "no opinion" folks to view him favorably, but Mitt's showing an ability to transcend negative opinions of the GOP. Something we desperately need in our next cadidate.

*******And one extra little tidbit and point of good news . . . Mitt' leads in yet another 2012 GOP poll (this one by Fox News):

Who would you like to see as the GOP 2012 Presidential Nominee?

Among Republicans (previous poll results, May 12-13, in parentheses):

  • Mitt Romney 22% (18%)
  • Mike Huckabee 21% (20%)
  • Sarah Palin 17% (13%)
  • Rudy Giuliani 13% (12%)
  • Newt Gingrich 9% (14%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (3%)
  • Jeb Bush 1% (3%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 1%
  • Too soon to say 10% (7%)

Among Independents:

  • Mitt Romney 22% (12%)
  • Rudy Giuliani 16% (19%)
  • Mike Huckabee 15% (16%)
  • Sarah Palin 13% (10%)
  • Newt Gingrich 3% (5%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (2%)
  • Jeb Bush 2% (2%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • Too soon to say 8% (14%)

Among Republicans/Independents (Combined):

  • Mitt Romney 22.0%
  • Mike Huckabee 18.8%
  • Sarah Palin 15.5%
  • Rudy Giuliani 14.1%
  • Newt Gingrich 6.8%
  • Bobby Jindal 3.0%
  • Jeb Bush 1.4%
  • Tim Pawlenty 1.4%
  • Too soon to say 9.3%
And as an extra bonus . . . a funny clip from Jon Stewart's Daily Show (love him or hate him, he IS funny) titled "What are you doing to help Mitt Romney?"

3 comments:

Conservativeguy said...

The neat thing about the approval numbers, is that as more people decide which way to go, in all likelihood, they will split about 2 to 1 favorable, thus making your number above party average even much greater.

Jeff Fuller said...

If it breaks that way then Mitt's in GREAT position.

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