Buy at Amazon

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

Mitt Sits Pretty in Present Polling

Rasmussen has the first 2012 GOP primary poll post-Palin's press conference . . . and it's good news for Mitt!


(Chart courtesy of SeattlePI.com blog)

THIS IS A SAMPLE OF 750 LIKELY GOP PRIMARY VOTERS

The crosstabs show some interesting points as well . . .

Regardless of who you would vote for, which candidate would you least like to see win the Republican nomination in 2012?
Sarah Palin 21%, Haley Barbour 21%, Newt Gingrich 15%, Tim Pawlenty 15%, Mike Huckabee 10%, Mitt Romney 9%

In the 2012 election, how likely is it that a Republican candidate will defeat Barack Obama?
Very likely 41%, Somewhat likely 34%, Not very likely 14%, Not at all likely 4%

Does Sarah Palin’s resignation help or hurt her chances of winning the Republican Presidential nomination in 2012?
Help 24%, Hurt 40%, No impact 28%
(Note the similarity of the 24% Palin get's in the total vote and the 24% here who say her resignation doesn't hurt her . . . her supporters are VERY loyal to her IMO)

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net):
Mike Huckabee 78% / 17% (+61%) , Sarah Palin 76% / 21% (+55%) , Mitt Romney 73% / 19% (+54%) , Newt Gingrich 65% / 29% (+36%) , Dick Cheney 59% / 34% (+25%) , Tim Pawlenty 38% / 33% (+5%) , Haley Barbour 34% / 37% (-3%)

Voters aged of 18-29:
Palin 34% Huckabee 31%, Romney 18%, Newt 3%, Pawlenty 3%, Barbour 0%

Voters 65 and older:
Romney 34%, Huckabee 19%, Palin 18%, Newt 16%, Pawlenty 2%, Barbour 0%

Married:
Romney 26%, Huckabee 25%, Palin 21%, Newt 14%, Pawlenty 1%, Barbour 1%

Not Married:
Palin 33%, Romney 23%, Huckabee 14%, Newt 13%, Barbour 2%, Pawlenty 1%

Evangelical Christians:
Huckabee 35%, Palin 21%, Romney 17%, Newt 15%, Pawlenty 2%, Barbour 1%

Rarely or Never attend church:
Palin 31%, Romney 28%, Huckabee 14%, Newt 13%, Barbour 2%, Pawlenty 0%

Attend church more than once a week:
Huckabee 41%, Palin 20%, Gingrich 13%, Romney 11%, Barbour 2%, Pawlenty 1%

Favorables/Unfavorables Among Evangelical Christians (Very favorable/unfavorable):
Huckabee 89/8 (56/4), Palin 84/15 (56/4), Gingrich 74/22 (40/8), Romney 67/25 (36/5), Cheney 68/26 (32/9), Pawlenty 43/32 (11/9), Barbour 36/37 (8/15)

Favorables/Unfavorables Among Likely Voters who Rarely or Never Attend Church(Very favorable/unfavorable):
Palin 75/24 (41/12), Romney 71/22 (39/10), Huckabee 71/24 (30/9), Newt 62/34 (40/16), Cheney 59/38 (32/21), Pawlenty 41/41 (10/16), Barbour 36/46 (10/22)

SUMMING IT ALL UP:

Romney's sitting in a very good position. He's in a statistical tie for the lead among GOP voters. However, Palin and Huckabee have done VERY poorly among independents/moderates/Democrats in other polling whereas Romney has been very strong in these groups (see recent Pew Research Poll).

This Rasmussen poll, once again, shows that Romney still has trouble with what could be called the more devout Evangelical Christians (those that go to church more than once a week, who apparently view Romney on par with Dick "Vader" Cheney while they think Huckabee walks on water). However, Romney is very strong among more mature and more educated voters . . . and this bodes well for actual GOP turnout (not to mention it being a good sign that older, wiser, and more educated people see that Romney is the best man for the job . . . hopefully that sentiment will flow into other age and educational groups over the coming months/years.

BOTTOM LINE:

IF THE ECONOMY, HEALTHCARE, AND/OR FOREIGN POLICY ARE THE ISSUES OF THE DAY IN 2010/2011, ROMNEY WILL BLOW HIS MAJOR CURRENT COMPETITION AWAY IN THE GOP PRIMARY . . . AND EVEN THE MEDIA BIAS FOR OBAMA WON'T BE A MATCH FOR AN ANGRY NATION WANTING THE REAL, COMPETENT, AND STRONG LEADERSHIP THAT ROMNEY EMBODIES.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Welcome Back! The wise and intelligent will vote for Romney in 2012 just as they did in 2008. It's all the others we will have to convince! It's hard to get stupid people to make wise choices. We saw what they did in 2008.

Anonymous said...

Have you had enough "Change" or change you cannot believe in? The real deal is Mitt Romney, he gets it...2012, no flubbing up this time...We must get it right...We need a comMITTed person to clean up the Obama mess..Is it a mistake Mitt won three Straw Pac Polls in a row? He can debate the " ONE" better than any other candidate...Let's do the right thing....Our country needs the best....Mitt 2012.....

Anonymous said...

How about a national push in the GOP to tighten up our rules on who gets to vote for our GOP candidate? That is where we should focus our attention.

Jeff Fuller said...

Anon 12:57:

I feel your pain, but such comments will reinforce the negative imgage that Romney is the elite candidate representing the elitists.

Anon 10:00
Ironically, Romney stands to do much better among moderates, independents, and repentant Dems crying out for competence this time around . . . while McCain and Guliani gobbled much of that demographic up last time. If the competitors are Palin and Huck then independents and moderates will strengthen Romney BIG TIME. That's the calculating point of view at least. :)

Bob Waters said...

I'm hopeful that Romney will have learned the lesson of 2008: that one violates Ronald Reagan's "Eleventh Commandment" at his peril. His negatives as compared to the other candidates, borne largely of his attacks on Huck and McCain last time out, can be reversed- but he must avoid reinforcing his 2008 image as somebody willing to damage a rival who may end up being the nominee if it helps Mitt Romney.

Jeff Fuller said...

Bob,

Mostly a matter of perspective IMO. Huck and McCain did a tag-team smack-down on Romney with plenty of veiled and non-veiled attacks. They would have done more if they had more financial resources too. It's not like they took "the high road". And the media focused their negativity on Romney and left their favorites Huck (funny pastor) and McCain (bash Bush and the GOP) . . . so the MSM wasn't gonna point out any negatives on those two . . . when polls were shifting against Mitt because of these media hits he made the decision to go on the offensive. Maybe it backfired, but it's understandable IMO.

hxl said...

tn requin

chaussures tn

women's shoes

chaussure requin

air max

chaussures sport

air 90

air 95

chaussures pas cher

air bw

air max

air 90

air chaussures

discount handbags

timberland

timberland chaussures

bottes ugg

ugg classic

ugg

bottes ugg

Chaussures Femmes

ugg classic

ugg

moncler

Chaussures mode

doudoune moncler

健康365天天网秉承为大家带去健康365天为己任,联合各大国内外知名品牌,其中国外加拿大营养屋系列产品为主,健康药品大全几乎被加拿大营养屋产品所覆盖。国内知名品牌欣乐佳以高纯度提取技术为优势,给大家带来高纯度、高质量,健康365天优质生活。欣乐佳的高纯度提取技术堪称国内提取技术行业领头人。中食月太也是保健品行业的新生力量,肽产品是中食月太不可忽视的主推品牌力量,完全符合国家食源性低聚肽标准和行业标准。健康365天天网集国内外,知名三大品牌,成就保健品行业先锋。带给大家最新、最安全、纯度最高的,保健健康药品大全